Mamata, Karunanidhi effect: MEA sees red as states veto foreign policy

HYDERABAD

20 MARCH 2012

The protestations from Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa and her rival and DMK

patriarch M Karunanidhi over India's vote on Sri Lanka later this week, coming as they

do months after West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee vetoed an agreement on

the sharing of the Teesta river waters with Bangladesh, has further fuelled anxiety in

South Block, which also houses the ministry of external affairs (MEA.)

The precedent being set by the Centre caving in or succumbing to the States on matters

that fall in the domain of foreign policy is worrying for India, and more so for the

practitioners of diplomacy in the MEA.

Already, India's engagement of Pakistan on one hand and China and Burma on the other

are determined to an extent by the domestic conditions prevalent in Jammu and Kashmir

and the north-eastern states, respectively.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh betrayed his frustration when he said in the Lok Sabha

that difficult decisions were getting more difficult because of coalition compulsions. He

called for bipartisanship in the interest of the country.

However, not everybody is pessimistic. Lalit Mansingh, a former foreign secretary and a

former ambassador to the US, echoes the sentiments of many who believe that this trend

should not be unwelcome.

"Foreign policy today is made not only in New Delhi but elsewhere, too. There are

multiple stakeholders and one can't deny states a say in foreign policy if it relates to

them," Mr Mansingh told this newspaper. So, if the states assert their rights and seek

more consultations, then the Centre must respect those sentiments, he notes.

Equally worrying for New Delhi would be the erosion in its standing in what it calls its

sphere of influence. The ongoing debate over which way India should vote on a UNHRC

resolution on Sri Lanka is instructive in that it illustrates how far India has come from

being an influential player in its own backyard to a marginal or fringe player.

Irrespective of whether India joins the US, France, Norway and others in voting for the

resolution as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indicated in the Lok Sabha, or abstains,

which is not ruled out if the resolution is not worded to its satisfaction, the non-binding

resolution is most likely to fall through.

Colombo is sanguine about the outcome of the March 23 vote in Geneva. It believes it

has the numbers required to defeat the resolution. China, Russia, Pakistan, Cuba,

Indonesia, Thailand and others from the Asian and the African regional groups in the 47-

member UNHRC have indicated that they would oppose it.

If that is a probability, then is it advisable for New Delhi to vote for the resolution and

risk losing whatever goodwill and leverage it might have with Colombo? At the same

time optimists take the view that Colombo would be helping itself, and India, by agreeing

to some concessions on the language of the draft resolution and by putting forward a

roadmap for a political solution of the ethnic conflict.

Kudankulam stalemate over, PM to discuss N-safety at Korea summit next week

HYDERABAD

20 MARCH 2012

Echoes of Kudankulam would be felt in distant Seoul next week when heads of state or

government from about 50 countries gather in the South Korean capital for the second

edition of the nuclear safety summit.

On their agenda will not only be nuclear safety but also the future of nuclear as an

energy source, post the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011.

While there is a strong popular sentiment against nuclear energy in Japan and a host of

other Asian nations, South Korea and India stand out as an exception where

governments have signalled their intention to pursue the nuclear power path.

The March 26-27 summit, which will be attended by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,

Chinese President Hu Jintao and US President Barack Obama, among others, can be

expected to discuss issues such as guidelines for nuclear safety.

The US hosted the inaugural nuclear safety summit in 2010.

A week before Dr Singh leaves for Seoul, Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa ended

the eight-month-long uncertainty over the future of the Kudankulam nuclear power project

by giving her go ahead.

Work at the site had been affected by the protests by locals spearheaded by a People's

Movement Against Nuclear Energy, which feared a Fukushima-like catastrophe in

Kudankulam.

The decision to restart work at Kudankulam coincides with China's decision to resume

construction of nuclear power plants. China currently has 13 nuclear power plants with

varied capacities.

China suspended approving new nuclear power projects and launched nationwide safety

inspections at nuclear power stations and facilities in operation and under construction

over safety concerns after the Fukushima nuclear crisis.

According to state-run Beijing Review, China at present has approved 43 nuclear power

plants, with a planned capacity of 200 million KW. These plants are located in 16

provinces, including eight in inland areas.

Incidentally, South Korea is one country where Prime Minister should find himself at

ease. In a poll conducted by worldpublicopinion.org a few years ago, Dr Singh was voted

among the most popular "regional" leaders in South Korea with 47 per cent South Korean

nationals saying they trusted him more than others.

In the 20-country poll, 30 per cent of Chinese leaned positively towards Dr Singh

although the Chinese views of him had become more negative as compared to the

previous poll. He also enjoyed an overwhelming support (83 per cent) among Indians.

In contrast, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari fared poorly on the confidence index. Only

34 per cent of the Pakistanis had confidence in him.

India's poser to US: If you won't dump Pakistan, why should we jettison Iran?

Hyderabad
18 March 2012

As India negotiates the diplomatic minefield that is West Asia, questions are being asked of the government as to whether and how it could engage differently with Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia, without having to taking sides or pick and choose one over the other.

New Delhi would have you believe that the overlapping tensions in West Asia, manifested in the Israel-Iran stand-off over the latter's nuclear ambitions, the proxy war being played out in Syria between a Shiite Iran and the Sunni-bloc led by Saudi Arabia, or more generally the competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for supremacy, constrict India's options.

In an example of some nimble Indian diplomacy, the government despatched external affairs minister SM Krishna to Israel and defence minister AK Antony to Saudi Arabia in order to offset any adverse fallout from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's proposed visit to Iran later this year. However, the same government chose in its wisdom to support a UNSC resolution against Syria.

While there is merit in New Delhi's argument, an influential section of the Indian diplomatic community contends that the ongoing investigation into the attack on an Israeli envoy in New Delhi or the threat of US sanctions on Indian entities post-June 28 for not reducing oil imports from Iran should not deter the government from pursuing what it deems is in its enlightened national interest.

"The US not only does not choose between India and Pakistan but actually assists our adversary in many ways, so why should we forego our limited relationship with Iran for the sake of the US?" wondered Kanwal Sibal, a former foreign secretary.

"Do Iran and Saudi Arabia choose between us and Pakistan? If at all they have been historically closer to Pakistan than to us. If Iran's statements on Israel and the Holocaust are objectionable, the Wahabi ideology emanating from Saudi Arabia is objectionable too. We should safeguard our energy relationship with Iran as best as we can despite US and EU sanctions and the Arab position," Mr Sibal told this newspaper.

Increasingly, diplomats who have observed or served in the region insist that India's relationship with Iran should stand on its own feet and not linked to its relations with Saudi Arabia. They maintain that whatever the differences between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the Shia-Sunni conflict that is building up, India does not need to take sides or feel compelled to choose.

They cautioned against a repeat of 2005 when New Delhi jettisoned its ties with Tehran in its narrow pursuit of the India-US nuclear deal. While some claim that Iran's rise as a regional power is inevitable, others cite the significance of Iran as land bridge to Afghanistan and beyond as a case in point.

From The Asian Age, New Delhi, edition

BJP's NDA partners pitch for minus-Modi formula for next parliamentary election in order to bait new allies

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi on the cover of the
26 March 2012 issue of the Time magazine of the U.S.

Hyderabad

17 March 2012

Making it to the cover of Time magazine may prompt two-time Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi's followers to believe that he has it in him to lead India, but BJP's allies seem to think otherwise.

These parties seem to be making up their mind that the NDA's electoral prospects in the next parliamentary election, whenever it is called, would be better served without Modi in the lead. Some of them have suggested sotto-voce that the NDA could hope to become more acceptable to voters and allies -- present and potential -- alike, if the likes of a Narendra Modi or even an LK Advani are not projected as shadow premiers. They are calling it a minus formula, similar to the minus-one or minus-two formulae seen in the politics of neighbouring Bangladesh and Pakistan.

For one, the JD(U), which is the second largest constituent of the NDA, sees Modi as a liability and it does not fancy the idea of going to polls with him at the helm. More so, when JD(U) leader and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar himself is seen as a potential choice for prime minister. What goes in Nitish's favour, as compared to Modi, is the degree of acceptability towards him among non-BJP, non-Congress political parties, some of whom are coming together to constitute what is loosely being called a third or federal front comprising regional parties such as the Trinamul in West Bengal, BJD in Odisha, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, and, now, SP in Uttar Pradesh, where Mulayam Singh Yadav's party has emerged the winner of the recently concluded Assembly election.

The third front is not without problems or internal contradictions, though. Complicating matters for this motley group is that there are many potential contenders for prime minister, including, but not limited to, Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Already, Samajwadi Party sources have indicated that their next goal after getting a brute majority in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly is to make "Netaji", as Mulayam is called in his party, the prime minister. The SP has indicated its support to the UPA in the event of the Trinamul pulling out of the alliance and there it is speculated that the Congress could offer Mulayam a Cabinet berth to return the favour.

From the Deccan Chronicle, Bengaluru edition

From the Deccan Chronicle, Hyderabad edition

For its part, the Trinamul would not mind an early election because it is better placed than its rivals after winning the last Assembly election. However, if Congress veteran and finance minister Pranab Mukherjee is to be believed, Mamata has a huge challenge ahead of her simply because she is not fluent in Hindi. "If you don't know Hindi, you cannot be a prime minister. There are certain skills that are required for certain work. That is why Narasimha Rao became a good prime minister", Mr Mukherjee had famously remarked in 2009 when asked whether he was in contention for the top job. The language handicap notwithstanding, Mamata's Trinamul could emerge as the pivot of this front and a potential kingmaker in the event of a hung Parliament, where no party or alliance has absolute majority in the Lok Sabha.

Incidentally, the question asked about Modi has been used for Rahul Gandhi, too. A section of the Congress party is in favour of seeing the Gandhi scion succeed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh before the next parliamentary election, if only to enthuse party cadres and voters alike, but Congress President Sonia Gandhi has dismissed the possibility for now. Like cricketer Sachin Tendulkar, Dr Singh is faced with a career dilemma: they would want to know when is a good time to retire. Dr Singh's anxiety is compounded by the fact that for one who invested a large quantum of political capital in the UPA-1 on seeing the India-US nuclear deal through, even at the cost of risking his own government, he is today having to explain why nuclear projects in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and West Bengal have not taken off. Also, big-ticket reform measures such as entry of FDI of up to 51 per cent in multi-brand retail, or in insurance sector, has been put on hold for want of consensus among the UPA allies.

Indian minister calls for beefing up infrastructure at China border, moots a national rail policy

From The Asian Age, New Delhi edition of 15 March 2012

Hyderabad

14 March 2012

Dinesh Trivedi made an impassioned plea for augmenting rail infrastructure in the border areas, in an implicit reference to China building a network of rails and roads in areas bordering India's north-eastern states.

In the same breath, he pitched for evolving a national policy for Railways, so that there is continuity of policy across successive governments and policies can be executed without them falling a victim to partisan politics.

"... the time has come to think of a national policy for Railways, just as we have one for defence and for external affairs," Mr Trivedi said Wednesday in his budget speech in the Lok Sabha.

Uncharacteristically for a railway minister, Mr Trivedi spoke about how the geopolitical situation on borders arising out of building of state-of-art road and rail network by neighbouring countries "requires a matching response."

The Railways, he continued, must remain in a state of preparedness to move men and machines to border areas.

Mr Trivedi sought to impress upon the relevant ministries of the government, not least of all the ministry of finance, that it was therefore necessary to undertake projects of national importance on priority and to ensure adequate funding.

Similarly, he argued for liberal funds for connecting the remote and backward areas in Jammu and Kashmir and the north-eastern states, without worrying about the return on investment or such other factors.

He warned that the projects in J&K and in the north-east, which required more than Rs 4,000 crore for the current year, may get delayed for want of adequate funding.

"The budgetary support to Indian Railways has been pegged at a modest level of Rs 24,000 crore as against a projected requirement of Rs 45,000 crore. The national projects in Kashmir and northeast region have also to be funded out of this," he said.

In his speech, Mr Trivedi also dwelled on how the Indian Railways was contributing its bit for improving India's relations with her neighbours. He cited the proposed Tripura-Bangladesh railway link, and the new Jogbani-Biratnagar line and Jaynagar-Bijalpura-Bardibas to provide connectivity to Nepal as a case in point.

Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh to visit Iran despite regional tensions

Hyderabad

12 March 2012

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's much-anticipated visit to Iran this year can be expected to serve the dual purpose of maintaining India's ties with Iran on an even keel and kickstarting peace talks with Pakistan.

Tehran will host the 16th Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in September.

His visit to the Iranian capital will, literally, be couched in nonalignment, coming as it will in the midst of a brewing crisis in West Asia, between Iran and Israel, and between the Shiite and Sunni blocs represented by Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively.

It will follow the visits by external affairs minister SM Krishna to Israel, and defence minister AK Antony to Saudi Arabia. Also, it will be the first visit by an Indian premier to Iran in over a decade, after Atal Bihari Vajpayee's in 2001.

Prime Minister Singh's proposed visit to Tehran is being described as a manifestation of India's balanced and equitable relationships with various protagonists in the region. A broad-based relationship with the region is a welcome shift in policy, particularly after the narrow-minded pursuit of interests in the run-up to the signing of the India-US nuclear deal.

India and Pakistan are among the 120 members of the NAM. Besides interacting with the host, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, Prime Minister Singh is likely to re-engage his Pakistan counterpart, Yousuf Raza Gilani, on the margins of the summit.

The prime ministers of India and Pakistan last met in November 2011 on the sidelines of the Saarc summit in the Maldives. Incidentally, it was on the margins of the last NAM summit, hosted by Egypt in the Red Sea resort of Sharm-el-Sheikh in 2009, that prime ministers Singh and Gilani agreed to insulate the peace talks from "action on terrorism".

Prime Minister Singh will be hoping that peace with Pakistan will be his legacy, as India heads for elections in 2014. The Singh-Gilani talks will be preceded by Mr Krishna's visit to Islamabad.

The Asian Age, New Delhi

Deccan Chronicle, Bengaluru

India slow off the block or ..? China likely to bag Israeli rail project

New Delhi

12 February 2012

India is set to potentially lose yet another infrastructure project of interest to it,

to China, due to a combination of diplomatic lethargy and inertia in decision-making.

Recently, the Israeli government approved a railway line linking its Red Sea port of Eilat

and Tel Aviv on the Mediterranean coast. The "Med - Red" railway line linking the

Mediterranean and the Red seas offers an alternative to the Suez Canal for

transcontinental trade between Europe and Asia. Also, it could facilitate exports of gas

from Israel to India and beyond. Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu is bullish on the

project, saying that "it has created very great interest in among the emerging powers,

China and India, and others."

The Israeli transport ministry has indicated a preference for a government-to-government

agreement with China for tapping the professional capability of the Chinese companies

in the construction of railway systems and transport networks.

Already, the Asian Development Bank, which is financing the TAPI (an acronym for

Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India) gas pipeline project, has indicated that

Chinese companies could be roped in to build the trans-national gas pipeline that will

deliver Turkmen gas to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Indian government is not

particularly amused by the prospect of a Chinese involvement in the construction of the

TAPI pipeline.

There is a sliver of hope yet for the Indian state enterprises such as RITES (Rail India

Technical and Economic Services) Limited and IRCON (Indian Railway Construction)

International Limited -- both of which are public sector undertakings under the railway

ministry. One of the options Israel could look at is international tendering, and, if it opts

for it, then Indian agencies stand a chance of becoming involved with the railway project.

The IRCON has completed several landmark infrastructure projects across the globe in

21 countries, including Israel. Similarly, RITES' operational experience spans over 50

countries in Africa, South East Asia, West Asia and South America; most of its foreign

assignments are for national governments.

However, an Indian government source explained away the inertia of decision-making by

saying that the project has come up in conversations only recently, and, there is no

information yet of any likely interest from a PSU or private entity.

Indians safe in Syria, no travel advisory for now

From Left, the clipping from The Asian Age; the International page of the Bengaluru edition of Deccan Chronicle; and the clipping of the article from the edition

New Delhi

4 August 2011

Some Indian nationals living in Syria have shifted from the city of Hama, which has witnessed protests, to Aleppo, the largest city after the capital Damascus.

Similarly, a few Indians living in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor have moved to safer areas in the same province following the recent unrest.

There are about 1,000 Indian nationals in Syria and all of them were reported to be safe. There were no reports of casualties or injuries to Indian nationals.

A majority of the Indian nationals, about 600 of them, including their families, are located at the Shia shrine of Sayidda Zeinab, on the outskirts of Damascus, where they learn the religious scriptures.

Some 300-odd Indians live in Damascus, and another 35, mostly oil workers, in the province of Deir ez-Zor. The remaining Indian nationals are scattered across Syria.

Unlike some countries, India does not intend to issue a travel advisory warning its nationals to leave Syria or to not to travel to Syria. Their evacuation is ruled out for now.

New Delhi has sought to justify its stand by saying that its assessment is different from that of some other countries whose decisions are clouded by political factors. It has determined, using its mission in Damascus and other means, that the situation inside Syria is not as bad as it is made out to be by a section of media, mostly based in the US and Europe. Also, the casualty figures are exaggerated by the particular section of media.

There were only pockets of protests, and the capital Damascus and Aleppo, two of Syria's largest cities, have remained quiet. Moreover, the families of diplomats of some countries, who had been asked to leave Syria following the outbreak of violence, were reported to be returning to Damascus. At the same time, India does not anticipate a problem in relocating its nationals from Syria if the situation worsens because their population is small, unlike Egypt, Libya or Yemen.

The sentiments of India, which is the president of the United Nations security council (UNSC) for the month of August, are shared by some other non-permanent UNSC members who have since issued a presidential statement, as opposed to a resolution, voicing its concern over the developments in Syria.

Sanctions won't help, a combative Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad warns US allies; Damascus banks on IBSA support in UNSC

Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad

New Delhi

2 August 2011

Dismissing the latest tranche of sanctions as futile, Syria has said that the European Union (EU) is mistaken if it believes it can extract "political concessions" from the government headed by President Bashar al-Assad.

The EU on Tuesday added Syrian defence minister Ali Habib Mahmud and four others to its sanctions blacklist.

In an exclusive interview to this newspaper in New Delhi, a combative Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad accused the US, EU and Israel of "provoking" violence in his country and attempting to do a Libya in Syria.

"It is very clear they want to repeat the same aggression committed by the NATO against Libya on Syria," Mr Mekdad said, alluding to moves by the US and its European allies to revive a draft United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution condemning Syria for its crackdown on protesters.

He is reasonably sanguine that the IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa), all three of whom currently are non-permanent UNSC members, along with Russia and China, would not encourage adoption of the resolution.

"What prevented the Security Council for the last three months from adopting a resolution is the understanding shown by the friends of Syria. I think this time their [the US and its European allies] attempts will fail again," he said.

The only time Mr Mekdad struck an apparently conciliatory note was when he said that Syria was "ready to cooperate with Europe" provided the terms of engagement were "on equal basis with mutual respect and understanding".

However, he was categorical that "if the objective of the US and its European allies was to help Israel preserve its hegemony and exercise its hegemony on the entire region then they are wrong."

"... what we are looking for is just and comprehensive peace where Israel withdraws from the occupied Arab territories from West Bank and Gaza, from the Syrian Golan and from southern Lebanon, and establishment of an independent Palestine state. This is the way we can establish [peace] but their support of Israel and their attempts to give Israel the peace and the land will lead nowhere."

Mr Mekdad noted that Syria was paying a price for being "the last post of resistance against European, American and Israeli pressures."

He added: "Any meeting between post-Hosni Mubarak Egypt and Syria is very dangerous for American and Israeli and Western interests in the region. That is why they have to destroy Syria before it establishes good, normal relations with new Egypt."

Mr Mekdad, who called on external affairs minister SM Krishna on Monday, said the "help and support received from India at international fora is very important."

India on Monday assumed the rotating presidency of the UNSC for the month of August.

Calling for "strategic" ties between India and West Asia generally and Syria in particular, Mr Mekdad said, "Syria and developing countries should now look to the east rather than to the west [and we] need to develop South-South cooperation."

Clippings from The Asian Age (top), Deccan Chronicle's Bengaluru edition (bottom left), and from Deccan Chronicle's Hyderabad edition (bottom right)

*******

India says CBMs will be a success only if Pakistan creates right atmosphere by taking prompt 26/11 action; Fai's arrest a "very important development"

New Delhi

23 July 2011

The "climate" for confidence building measures (CBMs) and people-to-people contacts across the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir would be best served if Pakistan creates the "right atmosphere" for a dialogue by bringing the 26/11 trial to a transparent and expeditious conclusion, an Indian government source said.

The observation should be seen in the context of the forthcoming talks between external affairs minister SM Krishna and his Pakistan counterpart, Ms Hina Rabbani Khar, to be held in New Delhi on July 27.

India was expected to announce some CBMs, some unilateral, others bilateral on a reciprocal basis, after the Krishna-Khar meeting, the agenda of which would be firmed up on July 26 when foreign secretary Nirupama Rao meets with her counterpart, Salman Bashir.

The CBMs could extend to increases in the number of days for cross-LoC trade and duration of entry permits, improvement in the Srinagar - Muzaffarabad and Poonch - Rawalakot bus services, and facilities such as telephone fortraders. Islamabad was hesitant about introducing banking services for traders.

By October, Pakistan was likely to shift from a positive list of items that can be imported from India to a system of trade based on negative list of items. In other words, Pakistan would effectively be implementing Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status for India.

Some items on the agenda of the India - Pakistan Joint Commission, such as agriculture, education and telecommunications, could fall in the purview of future discussions.

The source maintained that no dramatic, big-bang announcements should be anticipated. Even if the bilateral relations were to improve incrementally, India would at least be satisfied at having pulled the dialogue out of life support, post-26/11, and draw confidence from the fact that the sequence of bilateral meetings was sustained despite the odds.

It was pointed out that India would be willing to talk on "all" issues, including, but not limited to, Jammu and Kashmir. However, the source noted, it takes two hands to clap, and Pakistan needs to take a call on that.

Meanwhile, New Delhi has described the arrest of Ghulam Nabi Fai as a "very significant development". Fai is accused of having links to a decades-long effort that allegedly funnelled millions of dollars from the Inter Services Intelligence (IS), Pakistan's external intelligence agency, to fan anti-India sentiments and push Pakistan's subversive agenda over the issue of Jammu and Kashmir.

New Delhi did not discount the possibility that Fai's arrest could have something to do with the recent tensions in the US - Pakistan relations, but from India's point of view the "die has been cast".

The source said it was a "good thing" that enlightenment has finally come to the US, and it will hopefully come to other countries such as Britain and Belgium, too. Certain individuals and groups are known to be carrying out anti-India activities from London and Brussels.

Fai's arrest also validates India's position that the separatists' agenda in Jammu and Kashmir receives most of its sustenance from Pakistan. In the same breath, the source said that Pakistan's foreign minister should seek to impress upon the separatists she would be meeting in New Delhi to speak the language of peace and reconciliation.


Stapled visas by China upsets India, again

India has expressed disappointment over the issue of stapled visas by China to five sportspersons from Arunachal Pradesh in spite of a recent understanding reached between their officials.

"We are still searching for a de-stapler. We are obviously not amused" by the fact that they continue to issue stapled visas for our nationals, a government source said.

Recently, the Chinese embassy in New Delhi issued stapled visas to five karate players from Arunachal Pradesh, a step that ensured that they could not take part in an international championship in China as these documents were not valid for travel.

The action by China came close on the heels of the claims made by officials here that the issue has been resolved and was also reflected in the resumption of the Indo-China defence exchanges.

As Krishna leaves for Indonesia, Clinton asks India to counter China's aggression with assertiveness; Manmohan Singh to skip Commonwealth summit

New Delhi

20 July 2011

India was expected to continue its recently concluded discussions with the US on the Chinese aggression in east- and south-east Asia, with other countries in Indonesia this week.

External affairs minister SM Krishna will travel to Bali for the ninth India-Asean post-ministerial conference, the East Asia Summit (EAS) foreign ministers' consultations, and the Asean Regional Forum ministerial meeting on Friday and Saturday.

The situation in east Asia was discussed in the India-US strategic dialogue in New Delhi on Tuesday. The issue figured in US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's speech in Chennai on Wednesday, in which she urged India to be assertive in Asia.

"India's leadership has the potential to positively shape the future of the Asia-Pacific [and] we encourage you not just to look east, but continue to engage and act east as well," Ms Clinton said.

"The US has always been a Pacific power because of our very great blessing of geography, and India, straddling the waters from the Indian to Pacific Oceans, is with us a steward of these waterways".

She reminded New Delhi that with increased power comes increased responsibility. "As India takes on a larger role throughout the Asia-Pacific, it is also taking on new responsibilities including the duty to speak out against violations of universal human rights" in Burma, she said.

Ms Clinton and other foreign ministers, including Hina Rabbani Khar of Pakistan, would participate in the Bali meetings.

Ms Rabbani-Khar was scheduled to visit India next week for talks with Mr Krishna but they could exchange pleasantries on the margins of their meetings in Bali. However, the prime ministers of India and Pakistan would have to wait till the Saarc summit in Maldives in November for a possible meeting.

Indian and Pakistani leaders could have met in Perth, Australia, on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in October but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has opted out of attending it. In his place, Vice President Hamid Ansari would be leading the Indian delegation.

Hillary Clinton - SM Krishna strategic dialogue long on intent, short on strategy; US makes it clear to India that it will not dump Pakistan

Indian delegation led by external affairs minister SM Krishna and US delegation headed by Hillary Clinton participating in the second India - US strategic dialogue at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Tuesday, 19 July 2011

New Delhi

19 July 2011

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton interspersed her conversations in New Delhi with ifs and buts, conveying to a discerning Indian audience that the US was hedging on its commitments and, in the process, reinforcing a suspicion that the second edition of the India-US strategic dialogue was long on intent but short on strategy.

Ms Clinton's remarks during the course of her talks with external affairs minister SM Krishna on Tuesday, and a joint media event which followed it, were littered with qualifications: The US will support full civil nuclear cooperation with India but the bilateral pact has to be "enforceable and actionable in all regards"; the US stands by the clean Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver to India but the Indian nuclear liability law needs to be aligned with global practices; and, the US government cannot tolerate safe havens for terrorists anywhere but "we do see Pakistan as a key ally" in the war on terror and "we want a long-term relationship with" it.

There was no express commitment from Ms Clinton to either sell or to allow the sale of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to India following the NSG decision to bar their sale to non-NPT signatories such as India. There was no mention of it in the joint statement either. All she would venture to say in response to a question posed to her at the media interaction was that Washington supports the September 2008 clean waiver for India and it will push for India's membership of multilateral export control regimes such as the NSG.

Instead, Ms Clinton hastened to remind India of its commitment to ensure a level playing field for US companies seeking to enter the Indian nuclear energy sector. She voiced Washington's desire to see the Indian nuclear liability law tweaked to protect American corporate interests.

"We would encourage engagement with the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure that the liability regime that India adopts by law fully conforms with the international requirements under the convention[.] We are committed to [the nuclear pact.] But we do expect it to be enforceable and actionable in all regards," Ms Clinton noted.

She also reminded New Delhi to ratify the Convention on Supplementary Compensation by the end of 2011. The treaty will allow foreign companies supplying nuclear material and technology to India to tap into a global corpus of funds in order to pay damages in the event of a nuclear accident.

Amplifying Ms Clinton's remarks, the joint statement said that the participation of US nuclear energy firms in India should be on the basis of "mutually acceptable technical and commercial terms and conditions that enable a viable tariff regime for electricity generated."

Dwelling on regional issues, Ms Clinton said that Pakistan has "a special obligation to [cooperate] transparently, fully and urgently" in the interest of justice for the victims of the 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. She iterated that the US will continue to urge Pakistan to bring the 26/11 terrorists to justice but she qualified it by saying that "there is a limit to what both the United States and India can do".

Ms Clinton said that sale of defence technologies will help the Indian and American militaries to work together on maritime security, combating piracy, and providing relief to the victims of natural disasters. She also pushed for market access, reduction of trade barriers, and US investments in India, indicating that Washington viewed its ties with India in transactional, not strategic, terms.

For India's part, Mr Krishna sought to impress upon the American delegation that it was necessary for the US to factor in Afghanistan's ground realities and work closely with President Hamid Karzai's government so that conditions could be created where terrorists did not make any more advances in Afghanistan.

Mr Krishna said that India and the US had agreed to resume negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty. He urged the US to consider a "totalisation agreement" with India for the purpose of avoiding double taxation of income with respect to social security taxes. The agreement is essential for determining whether an Indian national is subject to the US social security or medicare tax or Indian social security taxes.

A bilateral aviation safety agreement and a memorandum of understanding on cyber security were the two tangible outcomes of the India-US dialogue.

Ms Clinton called on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and met with UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, leader of opposition in the Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj, and national security adviser Shivshankar Menon, among others.

Japan may suspend N-talks with India, puts Manmohan Singh's ambitious nuclear programme in jeopardy

New Delhi

16 July 2011

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's ambitious nuclear energy
programme risks being grounded even before it could take off with Japan
signalling its intention to suspend negotiations with India, and other
countries, for sale of nuclear-power equipment and technology.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan has indicated his personal preference
for phasing out nuclear power in his country. It could not have come at
a worse time for Prime Minister Singh, whose government is reeling
under the effects of a recent Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) decision to
restrict the sale of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technologies.
His government is also battling pressure from American government and
companies alike, to cushion the impact of Indias civil nuclear
liability law on the suppliers. That and the growing climate of
disenchantment with nuclear energy following the Fukushima disaster in
Japan could potentially unravel Prime Minister Singhs nuclear gambit
for which he has had to invest significant political capital in his
first term in office.

Japan needs to sign bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement with India

and have it ratified by its parliament before it can export nuclear
power technology and equipment. Compounding the problem for India is
that a delay in wrapping up the India-Japan bilateral nuclear pact will
pose a handicap for companies, both Japanese and foreign. Two major US
firms, General Electric and Westinghouse, are either partly or wholly
owned by Japanese companies. Even the French state-owned nuclear power
group Areva has a tie-up with Mitsubishi of Japan.

From the editions in Bengaluru (right), and Chennai (bottom-right)

India is keen to tap Japans experience of constructing the Rokkasho

reprocessing plant with indigenous technology in 1992. India has
concluded negotiations for a reprocessing pact with the US which will
allow setting up of at least two dedicated facilities for reprocessing
US-origin spent nuclear fuel under IAEA safeguards. India and Japan

share similarities in their strategies for the development of nuclear
power. Both have adopted a closed fuel cycle, which entails management
of toxic waste by reprocessing the spent nuclear fuel. Also, they have
opted for a comprehensive fuel cycle, from mining to reprocessing. The
Rokkasho plant has built-in IAEA monitoring equipment and other
advanced design features and India can do with Japan's experience for
designing a state of the art, modern reprocessing facility here.

India and Japan have held three rounds of negotiations so far. Both
sides exchanged views on various aspects related to nuclear energy as
recently as April this year, during foreign secretary Nirupama Raos
talks in Tokyo. Both sides will continue to discuss the way forward
for cooperation in this sphere, a statement issued towards the end of

her visit had said.

Mumbai terrorist attacks: Suspects not known, but Delhi is certain peace talks with Pakistan will continue

New Delhi

14 July 2011

The latest serial blasts in Mumbai may or may not be the handiwork of Pakistani elements inimical to rapprochement with India, but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has made it categorical that peace talks with Pakistan will not be disrupted irrespective of its perpetrators or their motivations.

On the morning after the terror strike, he deployed two of his senior Cabinet colleagues, P Chidambaram and SM Krishna, to reassure an international audience, worried about the consequences of a downturn in India-Pakistan bilateral ties in the wake of another terrorist attack in Mumbai after 26/11, that he will stay the course on Pakistan.

Mr Krishna said that the blasts will have no impact on the talks with his Pakistan counterpart this month. Mr Chidambaram, in turn, said in Mumbai that while all hostile groups are suspects, he would not want to point a finger at any particular group just yet.

Their statements would have calmed fears somewhat, given the sentiment in a section of the international community that peace between Pakistan and India was a global imperative.

The degree of anxiety generated by the attacks could be gauged from a flurry of condolences from world leaders such as Asif Ali Zardari and Yousaf Raza Gilani of Pakistan, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton of the US, Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Stephen Harper of Canada, William Hague ofBritain, Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd of Australia, the foreign ministries of Israel and Japan, and organisations such as the United Nations and the European Union.

However, domestic opinion was divided, with some Indians wondering whether relations with Pakistan had matured to the extent that one could begin to think in terms of moving away from presumption of guilt of elements hostile to the peace process. Also, some attempts to blame the Indian Mujahideen for the attacks were seen as a ruse to insulate New Delhi from criticism of its Pakistan policy.

At the same time, the government sought to defend itself by maintaining that there was nothing to be gained from fingerpointing, and, that its stand was in keeping with the spirit of Thimphu and Sharm-el-Sheikh.

Prime Minister Singh and his Pakistan counterpart, Yousaf Raza Gilani, had agreed in Thimphu in April 2010 that dialogue was the way forward. Since then, the foreign ministers and foreign secretaries of the two countries have met on several occasions.

At Sharm-el-Sheikh in July 2009, Singh and Gilani had agreed that action on terrorism should not be linked to the dialogue and the two should not be bracketed.

Further, it was pointed out that foreign secretary Nirupama Rao had recently said in aninterview to an Indian television channel that Pakistan's attitude towards tackling terrorism had "altered", and that its talk of tackling non-state elements was a "concrete development."

B Raman, a former official with the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India's external intelligence agency, noted that Pakistan "post-Abbottabad" was not the same as Pakistan pre-Abbottabad. There was an intense introspection regarding Pakistan's relations with the US, and,according to him, India has been a conceptual beneficiary of this introspection.

In an article he wrote before the latest Mumbai attacks, Mr Raman said:"The [language] is changing for the better, though one is not certain how long this would last. One could now sense a feeling of confidence in the Pakistani political leadership that less negative statements about India might have greater public support than in the past."

New Delhi's assertion, that talks with Pakistan will continue, could not have come a moment too soon for Mani Shankar Aiyar of the Congress party. Aiyar, a former diplomat and a former Union minister, may still not find a place in Prime Minister Singh's council of ministers but he has never tired of endorsing Mr Singh's hopes of ensuring that the peace talks with Pakistan become "uninterrupted and uninterruptible."