Will Modi's swearing-in set off a new SAARC-wide precedent? Will he spring a surprise again and attend the new Afghan president's inauguration?

This article was first published by www.rediff.com on 7 July 2014 under the headline, "Will Modi break from the past and swing by Kabul?"


We will know soon. Other things being equal, India can be expected to be represented at the 2 August inauguration of the new president of Afghanistan. It is reliably learnt that Afghanistan has drawn up a list of 40-odd countries and heads of state and/or government that would be invited for the ceremony to be held at the Presidential Palace in Kabul. Incidentally, all SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) members are invited, which has got some asking: Will Mr Modi travel to Kabul given that he himself made the unprecedented move of inviting SAARC leaders to his 26 May swearing-in ceremony?

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan was among the SAARC leaders who graced Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony. If Mr Modi, and some or a majority of his SAARC counterparts, indeed make the journey to Kabul for the inauguration of the new Afghan president-elect, then they would have well and truly established an unwritten SAARC-wide convention for the SAARC heads of state and/or government to grace each other's inauguration. Security will be a consideration, as would protocol, but given Mr Modi's penchant for the unconventional, it should not come as a surprise if he indeed decides to attend the ceremony in Kabul. That said, protocol has never come in the way of the time-tested ties between India and Afghanistan. Most recently, Vice President Hamid Ansari was the senior-most foreign dignitary to attend the funeral of Afghanistan's First Vice President Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim, who was a close lieutenant of the late charismatic Northern Alliance commander Ahmad Shah Masood.

However, if the past is any indicator, it could well be that the external affairs minister will represent India at the inauguration of an Afghan president. In UPA-2, a former external affairs minister of India, Mr SM Krishna, represented India at the 19 November 2009 inauguration of Mr Hamid Karzai's second consecutive five-year term as President. (Incidentally, New Delhi had initially planned to nominate Vice President Ansari to attend the inauguration but decided against it because Mr Ansari was required for chairing the proceedings of the winter session of Parliament.) About 800 invitees, including foreign dignitaries, government and military officials and tribal representatives, were present. On the occasion, Mr Krishna had a separate meeting with his American counterpart, Ms Hillary Clinton, and got to exchange pleasantries with his Pakistani counterpart, Mr Shah Mehmood Qureshi.

Going further back, former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh dispatched Prithviraj Chavan, Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office, as his personal emissary in a special plane for Mr Karzai's inauguration on 7 December 2004. Mr Chavan was among the representatives from 27-odd foreign delegations who attended the event. The invitees included, among others, the then US Vice-President Dick Cheney and the then Defence Minister Donald Rumsfeld, the then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's special adviser Lakhdar Brahimi, the then Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi and the then Pakistani Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao.

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi deputes his external affairs minister, Ms Sushma Swaraj, for representing India at the inauguration, her visit to Kabul would come almost immediately after conclusion of her talks in New Delhi with visiting US foreign minister John Kerry. Mr Kerry is expected to visit New Delhi for the annual India-US strategic dialogue, to be held on 31 July. This year it was Washington's turn to host the Indian delegation for the strategic dialogue, which is held alternatively in Washington and New Delhi. However, Mr Modi's ascension as Prime Minister in May prompted Washington to change tack -- and quickly at that -- given Washington's unofficial boycott of Mr Modi for close to a decade. The US imposed a visa ban on Mr Modi in 2005 for his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots and it remains in place to this day. Washington, accordingly, thought it fit to first send a bipartisan delegation to call on Mr Modi in New Delhi before hosting him at the White House in September this year. John McCain of the opposition Republican Party called on Mr Modi on 3 July. Kerry's aide William Burns will be in New Delhi soon before Kerry himself comes calling on Mr Modi -- something that would not have been possible if Washington had hosted the India-US strategic dialogue.

Dr Abdullah Abdullah and (on the right) Mr Ashraf Ghani

The only on-the-record comment so far has come from Mr AmarSinha, India's ambassador to Afghanistan, who has said that the swearing-in ceremony of the new Afghan President would be attended by India at duly appropriate level. He pre-empted speculation about India's preference (between Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank economist, a former adviser to the Bonn Process and a former finance minster in Mr Karzai's transitional administration, and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister) for President by saying that "either of the candidates become President they both are good friend of India and will work very closely with them (sic). They look towards India as a true friend[.] Our policy towards Afghanistan transcends political differences and each government work very closely both in India as well as here."

Key dates*:

5 April 2014: First round of Afghan presidential election

14 June 2014: Presidential run-off

7 July 2014: Preliminary result of the presidential run-off

24 July 2014: Final result of the presidential run-off

2 August 2014: Inauguration of the new President-elect of Afghanistan

(* as on 6 July 2014)

India is in Afghanistan for the long haul, PM to tell Karzai

New Delhi

11 May 2011

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will travel to Kabul Thursday in what will be his first visit to Afghanistan since August 2005. His visit can be expected to deliver "a lot of tangibles", a government source said, without elaborating.

He will likely tell President Hamid Karzai that India's assistance to Afghanistan's reconstruction and development was not contingent on presence and absence of foreign troops, and that India was in it for the long haul.

The source indicated that India can be expected to stay the course in Afghanistan in the post-Osama bin Laden era, and continue its reconstruction and development programmes in a "low key", "sotto voce" manner.

India would be willing to help the government and people of Afghanistan in every which way possible, in areas ranging from infrastructure, capacity building and skill development to mining and agriculture.

New Delhi believed it was too early to conclude how Osama's killing would affect the course of events in the Af-Pak region because terrorist groups such as the Taliban and the Haqqani network remained "as strong and virulent as ever."

India would be keen to encourage private sector investments and facilitate the participation of its companies. For instance, about 15 firms have expressed interest in the development of the Hajigak iron ore mine.

India would also be willing to step up its training efforts in areas such as policing, information technology, and mining. Kabul was exploring the possibility of sending Afghans to the Indian School of Mines at Dhanbad in Jharkhand.

Mr Singh said in a statement on the eve of his departure that he would hold wide-ranging discussions with President Hamid Karzai on ways to advance the bilateral ties and also exchange views on regional developments and the common fight against terrorism.

"We cannot remain unaffected by developments in Afghanistan. We take a long-term view of our partnership with Afghanistan," he said, noting that "if our region has to prosper and move ahead, Afghanistan must succeed in rebuilding itself."

"India's commitment to assisting the people of Afghanistan is enduring and has weathered many storms," Mr Singh said. India's development assistance commitment to Afghanistan is over Rs 4,000 crore, making it the sixth largest donor.

The government source clarified that India was "not propagating an exclusivist approach" or "not making demands" of Afghanistan insofar as its ties with China and Pakistan were concerned.

India respected the "sovereignty" of decision making of Afghanistan, and would welcome contributions by countries in the region, such as China and Pakistan, to the development of Afghanistan, the source added.