Will Modi's swearing-in set off a new SAARC-wide precedent? Will he spring a surprise again and attend the new Afghan president's inauguration?

This article was first published by www.rediff.com on 7 July 2014 under the headline, "Will Modi break from the past and swing by Kabul?"


We will know soon. Other things being equal, India can be expected to be represented at the 2 August inauguration of the new president of Afghanistan. It is reliably learnt that Afghanistan has drawn up a list of 40-odd countries and heads of state and/or government that would be invited for the ceremony to be held at the Presidential Palace in Kabul. Incidentally, all SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) members are invited, which has got some asking: Will Mr Modi travel to Kabul given that he himself made the unprecedented move of inviting SAARC leaders to his 26 May swearing-in ceremony?

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan was among the SAARC leaders who graced Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony. If Mr Modi, and some or a majority of his SAARC counterparts, indeed make the journey to Kabul for the inauguration of the new Afghan president-elect, then they would have well and truly established an unwritten SAARC-wide convention for the SAARC heads of state and/or government to grace each other's inauguration. Security will be a consideration, as would protocol, but given Mr Modi's penchant for the unconventional, it should not come as a surprise if he indeed decides to attend the ceremony in Kabul. That said, protocol has never come in the way of the time-tested ties between India and Afghanistan. Most recently, Vice President Hamid Ansari was the senior-most foreign dignitary to attend the funeral of Afghanistan's First Vice President Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim, who was a close lieutenant of the late charismatic Northern Alliance commander Ahmad Shah Masood.

However, if the past is any indicator, it could well be that the external affairs minister will represent India at the inauguration of an Afghan president. In UPA-2, a former external affairs minister of India, Mr SM Krishna, represented India at the 19 November 2009 inauguration of Mr Hamid Karzai's second consecutive five-year term as President. (Incidentally, New Delhi had initially planned to nominate Vice President Ansari to attend the inauguration but decided against it because Mr Ansari was required for chairing the proceedings of the winter session of Parliament.) About 800 invitees, including foreign dignitaries, government and military officials and tribal representatives, were present. On the occasion, Mr Krishna had a separate meeting with his American counterpart, Ms Hillary Clinton, and got to exchange pleasantries with his Pakistani counterpart, Mr Shah Mehmood Qureshi.

Going further back, former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh dispatched Prithviraj Chavan, Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office, as his personal emissary in a special plane for Mr Karzai's inauguration on 7 December 2004. Mr Chavan was among the representatives from 27-odd foreign delegations who attended the event. The invitees included, among others, the then US Vice-President Dick Cheney and the then Defence Minister Donald Rumsfeld, the then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's special adviser Lakhdar Brahimi, the then Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi and the then Pakistani Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao.

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi deputes his external affairs minister, Ms Sushma Swaraj, for representing India at the inauguration, her visit to Kabul would come almost immediately after conclusion of her talks in New Delhi with visiting US foreign minister John Kerry. Mr Kerry is expected to visit New Delhi for the annual India-US strategic dialogue, to be held on 31 July. This year it was Washington's turn to host the Indian delegation for the strategic dialogue, which is held alternatively in Washington and New Delhi. However, Mr Modi's ascension as Prime Minister in May prompted Washington to change tack -- and quickly at that -- given Washington's unofficial boycott of Mr Modi for close to a decade. The US imposed a visa ban on Mr Modi in 2005 for his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots and it remains in place to this day. Washington, accordingly, thought it fit to first send a bipartisan delegation to call on Mr Modi in New Delhi before hosting him at the White House in September this year. John McCain of the opposition Republican Party called on Mr Modi on 3 July. Kerry's aide William Burns will be in New Delhi soon before Kerry himself comes calling on Mr Modi -- something that would not have been possible if Washington had hosted the India-US strategic dialogue.

Dr Abdullah Abdullah and (on the right) Mr Ashraf Ghani

The only on-the-record comment so far has come from Mr AmarSinha, India's ambassador to Afghanistan, who has said that the swearing-in ceremony of the new Afghan President would be attended by India at duly appropriate level. He pre-empted speculation about India's preference (between Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank economist, a former adviser to the Bonn Process and a former finance minster in Mr Karzai's transitional administration, and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister) for President by saying that "either of the candidates become President they both are good friend of India and will work very closely with them (sic). They look towards India as a true friend[.] Our policy towards Afghanistan transcends political differences and each government work very closely both in India as well as here."

Key dates*:

5 April 2014: First round of Afghan presidential election

14 June 2014: Presidential run-off

7 July 2014: Preliminary result of the presidential run-off

24 July 2014: Final result of the presidential run-off

2 August 2014: Inauguration of the new President-elect of Afghanistan

(* as on 6 July 2014)

As Krishna leaves for Indonesia, Clinton asks India to counter China's aggression with assertiveness; Manmohan Singh to skip Commonwealth summit

New Delhi

20 July 2011

India was expected to continue its recently concluded discussions with the US on the Chinese aggression in east- and south-east Asia, with other countries in Indonesia this week.

External affairs minister SM Krishna will travel to Bali for the ninth India-Asean post-ministerial conference, the East Asia Summit (EAS) foreign ministers' consultations, and the Asean Regional Forum ministerial meeting on Friday and Saturday.

The situation in east Asia was discussed in the India-US strategic dialogue in New Delhi on Tuesday. The issue figured in US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's speech in Chennai on Wednesday, in which she urged India to be assertive in Asia.

"India's leadership has the potential to positively shape the future of the Asia-Pacific [and] we encourage you not just to look east, but continue to engage and act east as well," Ms Clinton said.

"The US has always been a Pacific power because of our very great blessing of geography, and India, straddling the waters from the Indian to Pacific Oceans, is with us a steward of these waterways".

She reminded New Delhi that with increased power comes increased responsibility. "As India takes on a larger role throughout the Asia-Pacific, it is also taking on new responsibilities including the duty to speak out against violations of universal human rights" in Burma, she said.

Ms Clinton and other foreign ministers, including Hina Rabbani Khar of Pakistan, would participate in the Bali meetings.

Ms Rabbani-Khar was scheduled to visit India next week for talks with Mr Krishna but they could exchange pleasantries on the margins of their meetings in Bali. However, the prime ministers of India and Pakistan would have to wait till the Saarc summit in Maldives in November for a possible meeting.

Indian and Pakistani leaders could have met in Perth, Australia, on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in October but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has opted out of attending it. In his place, Vice President Hamid Ansari would be leading the Indian delegation.

Hillary Clinton - SM Krishna strategic dialogue long on intent, short on strategy; US makes it clear to India that it will not dump Pakistan

Indian delegation led by external affairs minister SM Krishna and US delegation headed by Hillary Clinton participating in the second India - US strategic dialogue at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Tuesday, 19 July 2011

New Delhi

19 July 2011

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton interspersed her conversations in New Delhi with ifs and buts, conveying to a discerning Indian audience that the US was hedging on its commitments and, in the process, reinforcing a suspicion that the second edition of the India-US strategic dialogue was long on intent but short on strategy.

Ms Clinton's remarks during the course of her talks with external affairs minister SM Krishna on Tuesday, and a joint media event which followed it, were littered with qualifications: The US will support full civil nuclear cooperation with India but the bilateral pact has to be "enforceable and actionable in all regards"; the US stands by the clean Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver to India but the Indian nuclear liability law needs to be aligned with global practices; and, the US government cannot tolerate safe havens for terrorists anywhere but "we do see Pakistan as a key ally" in the war on terror and "we want a long-term relationship with" it.

There was no express commitment from Ms Clinton to either sell or to allow the sale of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to India following the NSG decision to bar their sale to non-NPT signatories such as India. There was no mention of it in the joint statement either. All she would venture to say in response to a question posed to her at the media interaction was that Washington supports the September 2008 clean waiver for India and it will push for India's membership of multilateral export control regimes such as the NSG.

Instead, Ms Clinton hastened to remind India of its commitment to ensure a level playing field for US companies seeking to enter the Indian nuclear energy sector. She voiced Washington's desire to see the Indian nuclear liability law tweaked to protect American corporate interests.

"We would encourage engagement with the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure that the liability regime that India adopts by law fully conforms with the international requirements under the convention[.] We are committed to [the nuclear pact.] But we do expect it to be enforceable and actionable in all regards," Ms Clinton noted.

She also reminded New Delhi to ratify the Convention on Supplementary Compensation by the end of 2011. The treaty will allow foreign companies supplying nuclear material and technology to India to tap into a global corpus of funds in order to pay damages in the event of a nuclear accident.

Amplifying Ms Clinton's remarks, the joint statement said that the participation of US nuclear energy firms in India should be on the basis of "mutually acceptable technical and commercial terms and conditions that enable a viable tariff regime for electricity generated."

Dwelling on regional issues, Ms Clinton said that Pakistan has "a special obligation to [cooperate] transparently, fully and urgently" in the interest of justice for the victims of the 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. She iterated that the US will continue to urge Pakistan to bring the 26/11 terrorists to justice but she qualified it by saying that "there is a limit to what both the United States and India can do".

Ms Clinton said that sale of defence technologies will help the Indian and American militaries to work together on maritime security, combating piracy, and providing relief to the victims of natural disasters. She also pushed for market access, reduction of trade barriers, and US investments in India, indicating that Washington viewed its ties with India in transactional, not strategic, terms.

For India's part, Mr Krishna sought to impress upon the American delegation that it was necessary for the US to factor in Afghanistan's ground realities and work closely with President Hamid Karzai's government so that conditions could be created where terrorists did not make any more advances in Afghanistan.

Mr Krishna said that India and the US had agreed to resume negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty. He urged the US to consider a "totalisation agreement" with India for the purpose of avoiding double taxation of income with respect to social security taxes. The agreement is essential for determining whether an Indian national is subject to the US social security or medicare tax or Indian social security taxes.

A bilateral aviation safety agreement and a memorandum of understanding on cyber security were the two tangible outcomes of the India-US dialogue.

Ms Clinton called on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and met with UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, leader of opposition in the Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj, and national security adviser Shivshankar Menon, among others.

India backs Rabbani on Taliban talks; will discuss issue with Clinton next week

External affairs minister SM Krishna of India shaking hands with Prof Burhanuddin Rabbani, chairman of the Afghanistan high peace council, in New Delhi on Thursday

New Delhi

14 July 2011

Burhanuddin Rabbani, who heads a panel which has the Afghanistan government's mandate to negotiate peace with the Taliban, would not mind using the good offices of India for finding a political solution to the strife in his country.

India is an important country in the region and we want its cooperation in peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan, Mr Rabbani said on the occasion of his talks with external affairs minister SM Krishna in New Delhi on Thursday.

Mr Rabbani is on a four-day visit to India.

Afghans should not be victims in the hands of others to be used against the Afghan people themselves, Mr Rabbani said without elaborating. He noted that regional countries had a role in promoting peace in Afghanistan.

India was expected to discuss the situation in Afghanistan with US secretary of state Hillary Clinton when she visits New Delhi next week.

Talking to journalists, US charge d'affaires Peter Burleigh said Afghanistan could figure "prominently" in the Clinton-Krishna talks, in which the relations between and among the US, India and Pakistan would be "thoroughly covered".

Burleigh described the Taliban reconciliation talks as a "very important issue" for the US and India alike.

The US was keeping India informed of the substance of the "very preliminary discussions" that have taken place with the Taliban interlocutors.

The diplomat went on to note that the negotiations for "reaching an understanding" with "some Taliban elements" were making "slow process", and the talks could be expected to "continue for months".

"[The US is] continuing to explore [and it] will keep India directly informed and also seek advice," Mr Burleigh said.

The situation in west Asia, north Africa, and east- and south-east Asia, was also likely to be discussed in the second strategic dialogue between Clinton and Krishna on July 19.

Replying to a question about the possible implications of the US losing out on a multi-billion tender for fighter jets for the Indian Air Force, on the defence cooperation with India, Mr Burleigh said "one contract here and there [does not] make or break [the] relationship" and that the US was in it for the long-term.

India to host Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of Afghan high peace council, this week for discussing peace talks with Taliban

New Delhi

11 July 2011

India will discuss Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai's peace overtures to the Taliban when it hosts Prof Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the Afghan high peace council, this week.

There was no official word from the government, but it was learnt that Mr Rabbani was expected to hold talks with the Indian leadership on Thursday.

Last year, a Jirga (tribal elders' council) had approved President Karzai's initiative to constitute a panel for starting peace talks with the Taliban. Prof Rabbani was chosen to lead the panel.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had met with Prof Rabbani in Kabul during his visit to Afghanistan in May this year. On the occasion Mr Singh had spoken about India's qualified support to the Afghan government's peace talks with the
Taliban.

India would not stand in the way of the talks provided certain red lines were adhered to: the peace process should be Afghan-led and Afghan-driven; the Taliban elements must have renounced violence and severed all links with the hardcore terrorists; and they should accept the constitution of Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meeting Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of

the Afghan high peace council, in Kabul in May 2011

Recently, President Karzai and former US defence secretary Robert Gates confirmed that preliminary contacts had been made with certain Taliban elements. According to reports, contacts had been established with Tayyab Agha, a former personal aide to Mullah Omar, and Motasim Agha Jan, Omar's son-in-law.

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has since described it as a necessary but unpleasant attempt to achieve a semblance of stability in Afghanistan. Clinton's British counterpart, William Hague, in turn, has said that the UK played a key role in helping initiate the "distasteful" talks with the Taliban.

The situation in Afghanistan is expected to be one of the key points of discussion in the India - US strategic dialogue, which will be chaired by external affairs minister SM Krishna and Ms Clinton in New Delhi on July 19.

Germany joins chorus of concern about Pakistan

New Delhi

27 May 2011

Germany added its voice Friday to the chorus of concern over Pakistan's

attitude towards terrorism by asking it to come clean on the extent of its links with

terrorist groups.

Talking to journalists ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to India next week,

Germany's ambassador Thomas Matussek said there were worries about possible

collaboration of parts of Pakistan's security apparatus with terrorists.

In Islamabad, visiting US secretary of state Hillary Clinton asked Pakistan to take

decisive steps against terrorists operating from its soil. She said Osama bin Laden is

dead but Al Qaeda and its syndicate of terror remain a serious threat to world peace.

Mr Matussek said defence and security dialogue will be a part of what Germany calls

"inter-governmental consultations" with India. It will be the first of its kind with a non-

European country, with the exception of Israel.

The German ministers of foreign affairs, defence, transport, education, trade, and

environment, will join Ms Merkel in delegation-level talks and hold separate meetings

with their Indian counterparts.

Other bilateral issues such as trade, science and technology, vocational training, and

skills development, and regional and global issues such as Afghanistan, Libya, United

Nations security council (UNSC) reform, can be expected to be an integral part of the

discussions.

Germany and India are members of the Group of Four (G-4), along with Brazil and Japan,

which are jointly pushing for permanent UNSC seats.

External affairs minister SM Krishna was expected to participate in a conference on

Afghanistan to be held in Bonn on December 5.

Mr Matussek said the weakening of Al Qaeda after Osama bin Laden's death and the

reinforced political process provided a realistic chance for the international efforts in

Afghanistan to succeed.