Showing posts with label terrorism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label terrorism. Show all posts

‘Together We Can’

[This article was first published by Tehelka (www.tehelka.com) on 1 October 2014 under the headline 'Together We Can'.]

Can Modi and Obama put the fizz back in the India-US relationship? Asks Ramesh Ramachandran

The year was 1993. Three young men reached New Delhi to catch a midnight flight to the United States. Since they had time on their hands, they caught up with each other at the designated time before proceeding together to their destination in Lutyens’ Delhi for a meeting with a senior colleague. Their appointment was for 11 am. The host, an elderly gentleman, enquired about their well-being before launching himself into a tutorial on manners, etiquette and protocol. “Dress smart and get a shave. You would be representing the country,” he said, almost father-like. So, in the evening, the three men dutifully located a barber’s shop and did as ordered. That was how a clean-shaven Narendra Damodardas Modi made his way to the US. The elderly gentleman in question was LK Advani, who was then the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, while Modi’s two associates were Ananth Kumar and G Kishan Reddy.

Modi might have deferred to Advani and shaved off his beard (it has been the RSS pracharak-turned-prime minister’s constant companion for decades now), but he would not relent on the dress code, choosing kurta-pyjama over shirt and trousers. The BJP had nominated Modi, Kumar and Reddy for a US government-sponsored exchange programme organised by the American Council of Young Political Leaders. Modi and Kumar were then the BJP general secretaries in charge Gujarat and Karnataka, respectively; Reddy was the secretary of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, the youth wing of the BJP.

Modi spent a month criss-crossing the US, travelling to eight states and meeting with a diverse group of American lawmakers, governors and mayors. His itinerary included a visit to a NASA facility, where he interacted with some Indian scientists, and a series of meetings with the Indian diaspora.

Little did he or America or, for that matter, much of India know then that someone who posed for the camera (see photograph below) outside the White House would, come 2014, be welcomed with a red carpet by its occupant. This, after having treated him as persona non grata for close to a decade.

On 18 March 2005, the US Department of State denied Modi a diplomatic visa and also revoked his existing tourist/business visa. Modi had planned to visit Florida to address a gathering of Indian-American hotel owners, but the US government invoked the International Religious Freedom Act (the only time it has been applied so far) among other legislations against him after an organisation called the Coalition Against Genocide alleged that he had violated certain religious freedoms.

Since then, Modi had become a veritable pariah for some in the West; Asia, in contrast, was more hospitable to him. Modi visited China, Japan and Israel as the Gujarat chief minister. The US has still not revoked the ban (Modi became eligible for an A1 visa by virtue of being a head of government).

Some US lawmakers such as Ed Royce, chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Aaron Schock, both Republicans, have publicly said that the US should have reversed the visa ban. Schock has even described the ban as “a huge mistake”.

However, the controversy refuses to die down. Days before Modi landed in the US, a New York court issued summons against him for his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots. The US has since made it known that not only do heads of foreign governments enjoy immunity from American lawsuits but they cannot be personally served or handed court summons. An Indian court has since cleared Modi of complicity in the 2002 riots and today the world is sitting up and taking notice of Modi, the prime minister. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Modi used to be a four-letter word but not anymore.

Frequent Traveller

Modi is no stranger to America. After his 1993 tour, Modi was to play an instrumental role again in 1999 in the wake of the Kargil conflict when he was deputed to lobby with the US lawmakers for adopting a resolution critical of Pakistan. The resolution threatened to cut off financial aid to Pakistan if it did not withdraw its forces from the territory held by India.

Modi’s travels are in stark contrast to that of Barack Obama. The only time Obama visited India before becoming the US president was in 1981. That year, as a 20-year-old student, he travelled first to Jakarta in Indonesia to meet his mother and step-sister and then to Karachi in Pakistan before rounding off his trip with a visit to Hyderabad in India.

The only other Indian connection to Obama then was his college mate, Vinai Thummalapally, who served as the US ambassador to Belize (the first Indian-American ambassador in US history) and is now the executive director of SelectUSA, which was established under the US Department of Commerce by Obama to showcase the US as the world’s premier business location and attract FDI into the country.

Thummalapally visited India before Modi’s visit to the US; he travelled to New Delhi, Hyderabad, Coimbatore, Bengaluru and Mumbai to meet Indian business leaders. (Thummalapally and certain other Indian-Americans in the Obama administration such as Nisha Biswal, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs in the US State Department, and USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah were among the guests invited to a dinner hosted by Obama at the White House in honour of Modi.)

Some in the BJP and the RSS sought to project Modi’s talks with Obama as any other bilateral meeting that an Indian prime minister holds on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Put differently, Modi travelled to the US primarily for participating in the UNGA debate, on the sidelines of which he also held talks with Obama.

A competing view is that Modi travelled to the US after his meetings with Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping, which to some foreign policy analysts, was by design. The message that Modi sought to send out was that the centre of gravity was shifting to Asia, the power equations were changing and therefore it makes sense for India to start a dialogue with Japan and China without belittling the role of the US.

Over the next three decades, China and India are expected to become the first and the third largest economies, respectively (the US would be placed second). So, in terms of heft, these three countries would be more or less at par and they would dominate global economy and politics for some time to come.

Personal Chemistry

In many ways, Modi’s visit to the US will be an opportunity for American officials, lawmakers and corporates to get to know him as well as he does America. And it needs to begin with Obama.

“With Modi’s arrival in Washington, Obama has a rare second chance to get India right after this country’s ties with New Delhi atrophied over the past two years,” wrote Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former US undersecretary of state for political affairs (2005-08) and lead US negotiator of the US-India civil nuclear agreement, in The Washington Post. “A US-India renaissance would bring the added benefit of clear bipartisan support at home. Bill Clinton began the US effort to define a more practical foreign policy partnership with India at the end of his time in office. George W Bush had great success in moulding close security and counterterrorism connections to the Indian government. There is a Republican-Democratic consensus in Washington that India can be one of our central 21st-century partners. Now, it is time for Obama to make his mark with India.”

Ashley Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a private thinktank based in Washington, believes that “the quality of the personal relations between leaders makes a difference to the way in which they conduct foreign policy. And especially among friendly nations, such as the United States and India, relationships make a huge difference to whether the outcomes of summits are prosaic or momentous”.

However, Obama does not have time on his side. According to Lalit Mansingh, a former foreign secretary and a former Indian ambassador to the US, Obama is fast becoming a lame-duck president, and even if the US wants to, there is only a limited amount of support he can give to this partnership in the remaining two years of his last term. “Modi is ascendant but Obama is descendent,” cautions Mansingh.

With Modi at the helm, there is an opportunity for the US to reboot its relationship with India. Unlike former prime minister Manmohan Singh, whose instinct by virtue of having worked as a civil servant was to preserve, Modi is a politician who seeks to transform. Tellis feels that one of the primary tasks for Obama and Modi would be to rejuvenate the concept of strategic partnership.

“Today, US policymakers across a wide spectrum are perplexed by what the phrase ‘strategic partnership’ actually means (insofar as) India is concerned,” says Tellis. “After an interregnum of desultory conversations, Modi’s visit to Washington presents a great opportunity to reconsider this issue. Beyond platitudes about democracy and common values, it is important that both sides have an honest conversation about the kind of relationship they seek and what it obligates mutually. Modi and Obama are both plain-speaking men and should have no difficulty conducting the type of conversation their predecessor governments once had. If they do so, the bilateral because it will leave little room for exaggerated or misplaced expectations on either side.”

Dinner Diplomacy

By all indications Obama set out to do just that when he greeted Modi with a “Kem Chho?” (how are you?) in Gujarati at the private dinner he hosted for a select group of officials that comprised, among others, Vice-President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and National Security Adviser Susan Rice on the US side and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh on the Indian side. The host had taken great care with the menu, offering only vegetarian dishes in deference to Modi, who was observing the Navratri fast.

The two seemed to have hit it off almost immediately given the similarities in their respective election campaigns, their digital savvy, the manner in which both leaders overcame odds to come to occupy the high office and how they both transformed themselves from being the proverbial outsider to the consummate insider. The two leaders issued a Vision Statement, which was titled “Chalein Saath Saath: Forward Together We Go”. It said, among other things, the following:

• “Through intense consultations, joint exercises, and shared technology, our security cooperation will make the region and the world safe and secure. Together, we will combat terrorist threats and keep our homelands and citizens safe from attacks”;

• “We will prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and remain committed to reducing the salience of nuclear weapons, while promoting universal, verifiable, and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament”;

• “We will partner to ensure that both countries have affordable, clean, reliable and diverse sources of energy, including through our efforts to bring American- origin nuclear power technologies to India”

• “We will support an open and inclusive rulesbased global order, in which India assumes greater multilateral responsibility, including in a reformed UN Security Council”;

• “The US and India commit to expand and deepen our strategic partnership in order to harness the inherent potential of our two democracies and the burgeoning ties between our people, economies, and businesses. Together, we seek a reliable and enduring friendship that bolsters security and stability, contributes to the global economy and advances peace and prosperity for our citizens and throughout the world”; and

• “We have a vision that the US and India will have a transformative relationship as trusted partners in the 21st century. Our partnership will be a model for the rest of the world”

While paying homage to the victims of the 9/11 attacks in New York, Modi said India and the US were allies in the fight against terrorism

Bilateral Talks

In an op-ed article jointly penned by Modi and Obama, which was published by The Washington Post on the morning of 30 September before the delegation-level talks got under way, they emphasised on the need to “set a new agenda”. A relevant portion from the op-ed read: “With a reinvigorated level of ambition and greater confidence, we can go beyond modest and conventional goals.”

Both leaders got an opportunity to set out the contours of that agenda when they jointly addressed the media soon after the conclusion of their talks. Modi spoke about “shared interests” in furthering defence relations and security dialogue with the US. Expectedly, the “framework for the US-India defence relationship” was renewed for another 10 years. It was signed in 2005 for a 10-year period. India invited US defence companies to come and support India’s defence manufacturing industry. For its part, the US agreed to cooperate as a knowledge partner for India’s planned National Defence University.

Modi reaffirmed India’s commitment to pursuing civil nuclear energy cooperation with the US and resolving all issues, without specifically referring to the Nuclear Liability Act. An India-US group would be tasked to address all outstanding issues and speed up deployment of US-origin nuclear reactors in India.

He urged Obama to allow the Indian service sector easy access to the US markets. Both sides had candid talks on the WTO (World Trade Organisation) negotiations. Modi conveyed to Obama that India supports trade facilitation as long as India’s food security concerns are taken care of.

Regional and global issues figured prominently in the talks, too. China, for one, was the proverbial elephant in the room. The details of their conversations on Washington’s rebalance towards Asia, maritime security and the global commons are not likely to be made known in a hurry because of the sensitive nature of the issues involved.

All that Modi ventured to say in the course of a joint press statement with Obama after the conclusion of their talks was that peace and security in the Asia-Pacific was of paramount importance and that there was a convergence of views regarding the region between India and the US. The US, he was quick to add, was “intrinsic” to India’s Look East Policy.

Significantly, an India-US Joint Statement issued towards the end of the bilateral talks said that India, the US and Japan would explore holding their trilateral dialogue at the level of foreign ministers and “work more closely with other Asia-Pacific countries through consultations, dialogues, and joint exercises”.

However, it needs to be said here that while the US might expect India to play a more robust role in East Asia, Modi is handicapped by a dissonance within India’s strategic community on how to deal with China.

Delivering the 25th late Air Chief Marshal PC Lal Memorial Lecture in New Delhi on 26 March 2008, the then national security adviser, MK Narayanan, had said that a “national consensus across the board” was required on issues such as whether “China is a threat or is China a neighbour that we can go along with”. Six years later, New Delhi is still none the wiser about Beijing’s intentions, particularly in light of recent incidents along the undemarcated border between the two neighbours.

(Even as Modi held talks with US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, the Ministry of External Affairs put out a statement conveying that the border commanders of India and China had met at Spanggur Gap earlier in the day and that the stand-off in Chumar and Demchok areas had been successfully terminated.)

Pakistan came up for discussion in the context of the challenges posed by terrorism in South Asia and beyond. Deepening and broadening the counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation was particularly flagged by Modi. Both sides agreed to work together to disrupt financial and tactical support for terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), the Haqqani network and Dawood Ibrahim’s D-Company, all of which are linked to Pakistan. Dawood is wanted in India in connection with the 1993 Mumbai serial blasts case. India and the US also agreed to collaborate to dismantle safe havens for terrorist and criminal networks.

In the run-up to the summit meeting, Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (a private think-tank in the US) and a former CIA analyst, had contended in a “India-US policy memo” that “counterterrorism cooperation with India should include robust intelligence exchange on Pakistan’s terrorist connections, particularly the ISI-LeT connection. Another LeT attack like Mumbai or Herat will provoke the most serious crisis in years between India and Pakistan — the more that can be done to prevent such a disaster, the better. Even if an attack cannot be foiled, the more information exchanged about Pakistani involvement with LeT, the more likely the US will have credibility with New Delhi if a crisis occurs”.

Riedel also said, “The US should also consider a unilateral step: Placing Pakistan on the State Department list of terrorist sponsor states. It certainly meets the criteria and has for decades. The first Bush administration seriously considered this step in 1992. Such a step would obviously have immense consequences for US-Pakistan relations. A more limited step would be to target specific sanctions against individual Pakistani officials involved in supporting terrorism like members of isi’s ‘S’ branch that handles liaison with let, the Haqqani network, and others. A targeted counterterrorism sanctions move against specific Pakistani officials would send a strong deterrent message to the Pakistani Army and could be a warning shot before putting Pakistan on the terror patron state list.”

And as incidence would have it, the US Treasury Department on 30 September took action against Harkat ul-Mujahideen (HuM) and the LeT by naming some individuals associated with them as Specially Designated Global Terrorists. “Both LeT and HuM are violent terrorist organisations that train militants and support the activities of many of the best known and brutal extremist groups, including al-Qaeda,” US Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David Cohen said, adding that “today’s designations will disrupt efforts by these terrorist organisations to access their financial networks and the international financial system”.

The foreign secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan were called off last month after the Pakistan high commissioner to India met with Hurriyat leaders disregarding New Delhi’s objections. Pakistan carried forward the cold vibes to the UNGA where Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif harped on Jammu and Kashmir. Modi, uncharacteristically, did not join issue with Sharif, as some had expected him to do; instead, Modi reiterated India’s position that it was willing to resume a dialogue with Pakistan so long as those talks are held in “an atmosphere of peace, without a shadow of terrorism”.

Those developments came close on the heels of Modi inviting leaders of Pakistan and other SAARC countries for his swearing-in ceremony this May. A Pakistan-based terrorist group had attacked the Indian consulate in Herat, Afghanistan, just days before he was sworn in.

Significantly, unlike previous years, the leaders of India and Pakistan did not meet in New York. Last year, the then prime minister Manmohan Singh met with his Pakistan counterpart on the margins of the UNGA, defying public sentiment and in spite of an overwhelming body of evidence of Pakistan’s complicity in allowing its territory to be used for mounting terrorist attacks against India and Indian interests, at home and abroad alike.

Incidentally, the history of India-Pakistan bilateral engagements is replete with an unending series of terrorist attacks interspersed with peace talks, an overwhelming majority of which were held in third countries on the margins of multilateral summits.

Last year’s meeting between Manmohan and Sharif in New York was but one in a long list of bilateral engagements starting with the 2006 Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Havana, Cuba; the 2008 Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing, China; the 2008 UNGA session in New York; the 2009 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia; the 2009 NAM Summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt; and the 2010 South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Summit in Thimphu, Bhutan.

Modi at the Madison Square Garden in New York
Afghanistan was an obvious talking point. India not only reiterated its commitment to working along with Afghanistan for regional peace and security but also improving its coordination with the US on Afghanistan.

Modi revealed his mind when he told the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent think-tank in New York, that he would like the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan to be “slow” and carried out in a calibrated manner; otherwise, he felt, Afghanistan could go the Iraq way. He also said that terrorism was a phenomenon that needed to be tackled globally.

In a related development, on 30 September, the new government of Afghanistan headed by President Ashraf Ghani signed a much-delayed bilateral security agreement with the US, which will, among other things, provide the residual troops, numbering about 12,000, immunity from criminal prosecution after a majority of the US and NATO forces leave Afghanistan by the year-end. Riedel argues that the US should “seek to work with India and Afghanistan” given the fact that India is already increasing its capabilities in Afghanistan and working closely with the Afghan government.

Modi and Obama also discussed the situation in West Asia. The US is keen to see India join a ‘coalition’ of 40-odd countries that supports a US-led campaign against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. However, India has traditionally been averse to taking part in any operation that is not held under the UN flag.

There is no gainsaying that intent alone will not help to translate Obama and Modi’s vision for the India-US relationship into reality. Cold logic will probably dictate and determine the future course of the bilateral ties.

Modi alluded to it when, in an oblique reference to irritants in the relationship, he used marriage as a metaphor to point out that even happily-married couples have fights and maybe there was no need to seek comfort on all issues in a relationship. “One does not have to be comfortable about everything. Even between a husband and wife 100 percent comfort is not possible,” he said, revealing the pragmatic side of his personality.

Modi knows only too well that there are pockets of resistance even within his own party to issues such as GM crops, FDI in multi-brand retail, WTO negotiations and an Indian education system modelled on the US four-year undergraduate programme.

If Obama and Modi succeed in enabling their respective bureaucracies to overcome the inertia that has bedevilled them for the past few years, then it should not come as a surprise if both sides make considerable progress on some of these issues in the coming months. So, going forward, expect love and heartache in equal measure.



The India-US Joint Statement: Pledges and commitments

• Establish an India-US Investment Initiative with special focus on capital market development and financing of infrastructure

• Establish an Infrastructure Collaboration Platform to enhance participation of US companies in infrastructure projects in India

• Have the US industry as the lead partner in developing smart cities in Ajmer (Rajasthan), Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and Allahabad (Uttar Pradesh)

• Establish an annual high-level Intellectual Property Working Group with appropriate decision-making and technical-level meetings as part of the Trade Policy Forum

• Established a Contact Group on advancing the implementation of civil nuclear energy cooperation

• A new and enhanced strategic partnership on energy security, clean energy and climate change

• A new US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience entailing a new programme of work on air quality aimed at delivering benefits for climate change and human health

• Reinvigorate the political-military dialogue and expand its role to serve as a wider dialogue on export licensing, defence cooperation and strategic cooperation

• Enhance exchanges of civilian and military intelligence and consultation

• Intensify Cooperation in maritime security to ensure freedom of navigation and unimpeded movement of lawful shipping and commercial activity; also upgrade their existing bilateral exercise MALABAR

• Reaffirmed their shared interest in preserving regional peace and stability, which are critical to the Asia-Pacific region’s continued prosperity; expressed concern about rising tensions over maritime territorial disputes and affirmed the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea




Vajpayee and Modi at the UNGA

There are some interesting comparisons between Narendra Modi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee insofar as their participation in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) debates is concerned. Vajpayee became the first Indian to speak in Hindi at the 32nd session of the UNGA on 4 October 1977. Vajpayee was also the first Indian prime minister to speak in Hindi at the Millennium Summit in 2000. Modi is only the second Indian prime minister to speak in Hindi at the UNGA. In 1977, the Janata government had been in office for barely six months. In Modi’s case, the NDA government was only four months old when he addressed the UNGA.

While Modi chose to focus on yoga, terrorism, climate change, environment and development, Vajpayee dwelt on the regional situation in Asia and Africa, including the Israel-Palestine conflict. Vajpayee also focussed at some length on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. He said, “… we are prepared to cooperate wholeheartedly with other countries in discussing ways and means of putting an end to the danger of nuclear weapons. It is both urgent and necessary for the political mind to free itself of military logic and for the political will to assert the force of reason and reverse the nuclear arms race in the direction of nuclear disarmament.” Modi, however, used boilerplate language on disarmament, saying: “Let us continue to redouble our efforts to pursue universal global disarmament and non-proliferation.”


Looking in the rearview mirror

It would be instructive to look back at the road travelled in order to better appreciate the present and future trajectory of the India-US relationship. India’s engagement with the US over the past 65-odd years divides itself into three phases. The major phase, spread over the first 50 years, coincided with the Cold War. That was followed by five years of transition and then 10 years of a strategic partnership.The first 50 years were ideal because the world was getting divided into power blocs and the US believed that India was not really non-aligned and that it was with the Soviet bloc; hence, everything that the Americans did was coloured with that perception. Also, since India refused to join the US-led power bloc, it got a backlash in terms of minimal investments and minimal transfer of technologies. What compounded the hostility from the US side was the fact that India exploded a nuclear device in 1974; with that came sanctions on technology transfers and acquisition of high-technology items.A big thaw came towards the end of Bill Clinton’s term as US president. Clinton was very fundamentalist on nuclear issues; his policy was to cap, roll back and eliminate India’s nuclear programme. He was pursuing it relentlessly and then the 1998 nuclear tests took place. Strobe Talbott, the then US deputy secretary of state, recalled a furious Clinton asking why the US agencies could not detect the Indian nuclear tests. Clinton was as angry with India as he was with his own officials, especially given that the US State Department came to know about the tests from CNN, and the CIA, in turn, learnt about the tests from the State Department. Subsequently, further sanctions were imposed on India.

If one were to identity the lowest point in the India-US relationship, it would have to be 1998, but oddly enough, it was also to be the beginning of a new relationship. An 18-month-long dialogue between Talbott and the then external affairs minister, Jaswant Singh, paved the way for Clinton’s visit to India in 2000; and the equations changed thereafter.

The India-US strategic partnership was cemented in 2005 after Manmohan Singh visited the US for talks with George W Bush. Both sides agreed to pursue civil nuclear cooperation and boost their defence ties.

However, there were differences of perception on what this strategic partnership meant. While the US discussed about the distant future and shared values, India worried about more immediate problems such as sanctions; it wanted three specific issues to be resolved before both sides could start talking about the future. First was transfer of high-technology; second, nuclear cooperation; and the third was space. A high point in the bilateral relationship was the signing of the civil nuclear cooperation agreement in 2008.

However, the years that followed were pretty staid for the relationship. The 2012 Budget was a lightning rod of sorts for the US businesses to start criticising India for retrospective taxation, unfriendly investment conditions and uncertainty about future economic reforms.

Last year, the relations plummeted after Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade was strip-searched for allegedly mistreating her maid.

And earlier this year, the National Association of Manufacturers petitioned the US government and the US Congress that sanctions be imposed on India for violating its international trade obligations. The US Trade Representative toyed with the idea of placing India under a special category of countries, which would have invited mandatory sanctions by the US Congress. “If that had happened, it would have been like a declaration of war” against India, said a source tracking India-US ties. “Nothing would have prevented the countries from drifting further apart.” Fortunately, that was not to happen.

However, bitterness was building up, mainly from the US industry side. In India, there was a feeling that under Obama, the urge to forge a bond with India was not there. Obama was not George W Bush. Bush may have been criticised for some of his policies but one policy that survived was his decision to enter into a strategic partnership with India. Some Indians felt that Obama was not investing in the partnership.

A more charitable view was that Obama was buffeted by crises at home and abroad, such as the state of the US economy, Arab Spring, Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, which contributed to the drift.
Clearly, the fizz had gone out of the relationship.



Will reality bite the diaspora?

Promises have been offered at a dizzying pace, but their realisation will take its own sweet time
After the euphoria, the hard news. And after the politician’s extravagant promises, the bureaucrat’s caution. It is authoritatively learnt that Narendra Modi’s promise to merge the scheme for Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) with that for Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) will take time to become a reality.

Security establishments will provide their inputs and seek to plug existing loopholes before going full steam with the merger. Apart from the security establishment, the Bureau of Immigration will look closely into the implications that the merger may entail.

There are certain other vital areas as well. The merger, it has been clarified, will not lead to dual citizenship anytime in the near future. Diplomatic circles aver that the issue of dual citizenship is not only nettlesome but has dangerous ramifications in a South Asian context, what with PIOs abounding in countries such as Nepal and Sri Lanka, a situation fraught with complications.

As things stand, PIO cards are given to those Indians who have been residing abroad for no less than two generations. On the other hand, OCI cards are given to those abroad of more recent vintage.

Other specifics include the fact that while PIOs get visas for a specific timeframe and have to currently go through some bother of visiting the Foreigner Regional Registration Office or the police to extend visas, an OCI card is enough for its holder to enter the country for an undefined period of time.

Modi meeting members of the Indian-American community
PIOs will be hopeful that once the two schemes are merged, they could also avail visa-free travel in India, residential rights and participation in business activities.

The merger scheme has a history — the upa government in its second term promised to deliver the goods but failed. The upa scheme has now come in handy for Modi, if and when it is implemented.
Attractive as the OCI is, existing rules stipulate that the OCI registration certificate and visa have to be reissued every time a new passport is acquired, up to the completion of 20 years of age and once after 50.

When it was introduced nine years ago, the OCI card was touted as proof of the government’s seriousness about wooing the diaspora. People were pushed to give up the PIO card as OCI was considered PIO-plus. The lifelong duration promise was tantalisingly dangled even at that time.
Additionally, other than allowing the holding of agricultural property and granting the vote, it put OCI cardholders at par with Indian citizens. It sounded like a dream scenario for non-residents, but it never got implemented. Further, OCI applications have to be sent to India, and for Washington, the processing time has been given as 90 days. In practical terms, an OCI cardholder is effectively without an Indian visa for three months minimum as far as Indian-Americans are concerned.
There has been a demand that the OCI card can be a standalone document without the need for another visa stamp in the passport. An OCI costs $475 and the hope being expressed is that at least the hugely convoluted process has been jettisoned, as promised by Modi.

There is optimism that the US will make a reciprocal gesture and offer India membership in its ‘Global Entry’ traveller network. The US does provide the facility to citizens of a clutch of countries such as Canada, South Korea and Mexico.

By the time the Pravasi Bharatiya Divas is held in January 2015 — this time in Gandhinagar, Gujarat — the euphoria of Modi’s US proclamation will no doubt have died down. The diaspora, with its entitlement attitude, may have discovered that the ubiquitous red tape is preventing instant gratification of the type they are so used to in the West.


Incidentally, embassies and consulates across the world are propagating the event thus: “Since 2015 marks the hundredth anniversary of the return of the greatest ‘pravasi’ of all, Mahatma Gandhi from South Africa, it is desired that Pravasi Bharatiya Divas would be celebrated in a grand way.” Whether those who went abroad in determined pursuit of material wealth would have any time for Gandhi’s message of “simple living, high thinking” will be interesting to touch.

REMOVE THE BLINKERS

This article was published by Asia Times Online (www.atimes.com) on 17 October 2013 under the headline: "Singh takes a lonely road on Pakistan". Here is the link to it.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in a bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif in
New York on 29 September 2013 (Pictures courtesy: www.pmindia.nic.in)

New Delhi
16 October 2013

The Prime Minister of India met with his Pakistan counterpart on the margins of the 68th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on 29 September 2013, defying public sentiment and in spite of an overwhelming body of evidence of Pakistan’s complicity in allowing its territory to be used for mounting terrorist attacks against India and Indian interests, at home and abroad alike. The discourse leading up to the meeting was dominated by whether the talks should at all be held in the immediate backdrop of the 26 September 2013 twin terror attacks in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir in which Indian soldiers, police personnel and civilians were killed. It was not an isolated incident: In January this year an Indian soldier was beheaded at the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan; in August five more Indian soldiers were killed; and, in between, several more such killings and infiltrations were reported. As it became known later, the Indian Army was engaged in an operation to repulse an attempt from the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) to push a tranche of infiltrators across the Line of Control even as the two premiers shook hands and posed for the cameras. It took the army a fortnight to successfully conclude the anti-infiltration operation. If the government dithered on calling Pakistan’s bluff, the army chief made it eminently clear to anyone who would care to listen that it is impossible for terrorists to carry out any activity along the LoC without the knowledge of the Pakistani Army.

By the Indian government’s own admission, the expectations from the New York talks had to be toned down given the terror arm which is still active in the Indian subcontinent. And as it predictably turned out, there was not much to show by way of outcomes except for the two sides deciding to task their respective Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMOs) to meet for suggesting effective means to restore the ceasefire. Even that looks remote now. The two DGMOs last met in 1999 although they speak fairly regularly. The New York meeting could at best be described as a photo-op. If anything, it once again reaffirmed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s, and by extension his government’s, adamantly consistent but questionable position on talks with Pakistan. After the 26 November 2008 Mumbai attacks, too, he had similarly disregarded public opinion to first meet with the then President of Pakistan at Yekaterinburg in Russia on the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, and later with the then Prime Minister of Pakistan at the Red Sea resort of Sharm-el-Sheikh in Egypt on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit. It was at Sharm-el-Sheikh that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his team agreed to a joint statement with Pakistan that said: “Action on terrorism should not be linked to the Composite Dialogue Process and these should not be bracketed”. Also, in another first, Balochistan was allowed to creep into the text of an India - Pakistan joint statement. Pakistan has since conveniently used the bogey of Indian involvement in stirring up trouble in Balochistan as a stock response to India’s assertions of a Pakistani hand in fomenting unrest in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.

All of which begs the question: Talks to what end, and at what cost? Is the life of an Indian – be it a soldier or a civilian — so cheap that talks with Pakistan should continue at any cost and in spite of a spate of terrorist attacks, as evidenced most recently in the twin terror attacks in the Samba and Kathua sectors of Jammu and Kashmir? How many more brave Indian soldiers should be killed in cowardly terrorist attacks before the decision-making apparatuses of the government proactively seek out the military’s views? How many more families should lose their loved ones at the hands of the terrorists and their masters outside our borders before the government of the day begins to pay heed to the sentiments of the common man whom it claims to represent? Why are no visible attempts being made to restore the delicate civil-military balance and to uphold the dignity and morale of the soldier? Instead, what we are witnessing today is a government that is playing with fire and it needs to stop now. External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid has since clarified that while the two Prime Ministers met in New York the stage has not been reached where the two sides have indicated any dates, timeline or perspective on resuming the dialogue. And with a post-2014 Afghanistan looming large on the horizon it is anyone’s guess as to how much time and effort Pakistan, given its proclivities, will be willing to spare and/or invest in preserving the incremental peace dividends and insulating the bilateral relationship from external influences.


Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in a bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister of
Pakistan Nawaz Sharif in New York on 29 September 2013. Also seen in the picture
(on the right) are External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, National Security
Adviser Shivshankar Menon and Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh
What the discerning stakeholders in India today need be understand is that this government’s blind faith in dialogue with Pakistan has not disproved those who have little or no faith in talks under the present circumstances. The history of India – Pakistan bilateral engagement over the past decade and more is replete with an unending series of terrorist attacks interspersed with peace talks, an overwhelming majority of which were held in third countries on the margins of multilateral summits. The New York meeting is but one in a long list of bilateral engagements starting with the 2006 NAM summit at Havana in Cuba, the 2008 Asia –Europe Meeting (ASEM) at Beijing in China, the 2008 United Nations General Assembly session in New York, the 2009 SCO summit at Yekaterinburg in Russia, the 2009 NAM summit at Sharm-el-Sheikh and the 2010 SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) summit at Thimphu in Bhutan. Add to it former Pakistan President Gen Pervez Musharraf’s visit to New Delhi in 2005 and former Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s visit to Mohali in 2011 for watching cricket or the private visits by Pakistani heads of state/government to Ajmer and you have a veritably uninterrupted dialogue that can be traced further back to Lahore, 1999; Agra, 2001; and Islamabad, 2004. Importantly, these bilateral engagements have survived multiple terrorist attacks and conflicts dating back to Kargil and Kandahar in 1999, Parliament in 2001, Mumbai train bombings of 2006 and the 26/11 terrorist attacks again in Mumbai, in 2008. But what has come of the talks so far? Are we any closer to a breakthrough than we were before? Have terrorist attacks diminished appreciably? Unfortunately, after every terrorist attack the government of the day mouths platitudes and employs boilerplate language such as ‘It cannot be business as usual’ or ‘Patience is not inexhaustible’ only to go back on them at the first available opportunity! This government has tied itself in knots over its Pakistan policy but it has only itself to blame for it. Its inability to think out of the box has exposed its bankruptcy of ideas on how to deal with an increasingly intransigent neighbour. And Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s personal quest for a lasting legacy insofar as Pakistan is concerned has only further compounded an already intractable conundrum.

The government needs to remove its blinkers and begin to appreciate that terrorism and talks cannot go hand in hand. It is imperative that the government shows zero tolerance to terrorism, takes strong steps to prevent terror attacks and imposes costs on the perpetrators of terrorism. Most importantly, the government must heed public opinion. The time has come for the government to start calling Pakistan’s bluff, to act firmly and decisively and if that involves putting a moratorium on future talks with Pakistan at the highest level, “so be it.” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has used this specific language before, albeit to a domestic audience in the run up to the India – United States nuclear cooperation agreement in his first term in office when the Left parties parted ways with the UPA; there is no reason why in the instant context Pakistan cannot be told “So be it”; that India will be free to pursue its course of action if Pakistan does not intend to reciprocate peace overtures; and that consequences will follow if it does not give satisfaction to India on what India considers to be its core interests. Saying no to talks now is not the same as saying no to talks ever and it certainly need not necessarily mean or come to represent an escalation of tensions. A range of other equally effective options is available to the government of the day to execute its Pakistan policy and these must be explored. Above all, the government must forge the broadest possible national consensus on the way forward for a détente with Pakistan.

Mumbai terrorist attacks: Suspects not known, but Delhi is certain peace talks with Pakistan will continue

New Delhi
14 July 2011

The latest serial blasts in Mumbai may or may not be the handiwork of Pakistani elements inimical to rapprochement with India, but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has made it categorical that peace talks with Pakistan will not be disrupted irrespective of its perpetrators or their motivations.

On the morning after the terror strike, he deployed two of his senior Cabinet colleagues, P Chidambaram and SM Krishna, to reassure an international audience, worried about the consequences of a downturn in India-Pakistan bilateral ties in the wake of another terrorist attack in Mumbai after 26/11, that he will stay the course on Pakistan.

Mr Krishna said that the blasts will have no impact on the talks with his Pakistan counterpart this month. Mr Chidambaram, in turn, said in Mumbai that while all hostile groups are suspects, he would not want to point a finger at any particular group just yet.

Their statements would have calmed fears somewhat, given the sentiment in a section of the international community that peace between Pakistan and India was a global imperative.

The degree of anxiety generated by the attacks could be gauged from a flurry of condolences from world leaders such as Asif Ali Zardari and Yousaf Raza Gilani of Pakistan, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton of the US, Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Stephen Harper of Canada, William Hague ofBritain, Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd of Australia, the foreign ministries of Israel and Japan, and organisations such as the United Nations and the European Union.

However, domestic opinion was divided, with some Indians wondering whether relations with Pakistan had matured to the extent that one could begin to think in terms of moving away from presumption of guilt of elements hostile to the peace process. Also, some attempts to blame the Indian Mujahideen for the attacks were seen as a ruse to insulate New Delhi from criticism of its Pakistan policy.

At the same time, the government sought to defend itself by maintaining that there was nothing to be gained from fingerpointing, and, that its stand was in keeping with the spirit of Thimphu and Sharm-el-Sheikh.

Prime Minister Singh and his Pakistan counterpart, Yousaf Raza Gilani, had agreed in Thimphu in April 2010 that dialogue was the way forward. Since then, the foreign ministers and foreign secretaries of the two countries have met on several occasions.

At Sharm-el-Sheikh in July 2009, Singh and Gilani had agreed that action on terrorism should not be linked to the dialogue and the two should not be bracketed.

Further, it was pointed out that foreign secretary Nirupama Rao had recently said in aninterview to an Indian television channel that Pakistan's attitude towards tackling terrorism had "altered", and that its talk of tackling non-state elements was a "concrete development."

B Raman, a former official with the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India's external intelligence agency, noted that Pakistan "post-Abbottabad" was not the same as Pakistan pre-Abbottabad. There was an intense introspection regarding Pakistan's relations with the US, and,according to him, India has been a conceptual beneficiary of this introspection.

In an article he wrote before the latest Mumbai attacks, Mr Raman said:"The [language] is changing for the better, though one is not certain how long this would last. One could now sense a feeling of confidence in the Pakistani political leadership that less negative statements about India might have greater public support than in the past."

New Delhi's assertion, that talks with Pakistan will continue, could not have come a moment too soon for Mani Shankar Aiyar of the Congress party. Aiyar, a former diplomat and a former Union minister, may still not find a place in Prime Minister Singh's council of ministers but he has never tired of endorsing Mr Singh's hopes of ensuring that the peace talks with Pakistan become "uninterrupted and uninterruptible."

'26/11 was the low point of my stay in India'


The battle against terrorism will require concerted international action of all likeminded countries as it is a battle that we cannot afford to lose, says MARK SOFER, Israel's outgoing ambassador in New Delhi, as he prepares to leave India soon after spending four years here. In an interview to RAMESH RAMACHANDRAN, he talks of how the “dynamic“ relationship between the two countries “is now going places“. Excerpts:

Q: How would you describe the Israel-India relations today, and what are some of the high and low points of your tenure?

A: It is a relationship in motion, which started before I came of course, but clearly, it has an enormous dynamic of its own. If you look at the basic facts and figures, the bilateral civilian trade has reached $5 billion. We are working on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Next year will be the 20th anniversary of the establishment of India-Israel relations, and, hopefully around that time we will be able to conclude the (FTA) negotiations. Some experts estimate that bilateral civilian trade will triple in the next three or four years, so we are talking $15 billion worth of civilian trade. And the trade is finely balanced in terms of imports and exports, and it will include such things as investment, services, and goods. In agriculture, a centre of excellence is already up and running in Karnal, Haryana; a second centre will open in Sirsa, also in Haryana; and a third probably will be in Nagpur in Maharashtra. We are also looking at Tamil Nadu. I mean — the sky is the limit. And, now we are embarking on a new negotiation process for an MoU (memorandum of understanding) in dairy farming, etc.

So, basically, in every field of human endeavour, this relationship is in a dynamic mode. It didn’t start with me and it won’t end with me; I am just in the middle of it. So this is a relationship that is going places. One of the real high points in my four years here has been the opening of the agricultural centre in Haryana. A vast population of India is dependent on farming. At the end of the day, embassies and countries interact to better the lives of their peoples, and if we can cooperate on the main issue which faces the Indian economy and social world, which is agriculture of course, this gives me the greatest pleasure. There is nothing more inspiring or heart-warming than seeing farmers from far and wide coming to look at Israeli technologies and incorporating them into their own smallholdings. We all like to deal with geostrategic issues, but, sometimes, it is these things, the nitty-gritty, that make a term of duty the beauty that it is.

If you ask me, it has been the most wonderful four years of my life working with the Indian government and people on not just issues related to West Asia but related to the welfare of people, such as water, alternative energy, agriculture, technology and industry. I think that there is no doubt in my mind that the low point of my stay here was the Mumbai attacks; of that there is no doubt. Our prayers are with the families of those Indians that were killed, but the Jewish people also were specifically targeted in that atrocity.

Q: How will the killing of Osama bin Laden affect the war on terrorism in general, and the situation in West Asia in particular?

A: The world is a better place now that Osama bin Laden is no longer with us. But does it mean the end of terrorism? Of course it does not. Other such fanatics will come out of the woodwork, they are already coming out of the woodwork, already planning new attacks. The way to tackle it is concerted unified international action of all like-minded countries. This is a battle that we cannot afford to lose.

Q: US President Barack Obama’s speeches on the West Asia peace process have not gone down well with the Israeli government. How do you see the Israel-Palestine peace process going forward?

A: This relationship is rock-solid. There is no rift. There are differences of opinion, which are natural; there are differences of opinion between friends and even inside a family. That is a normal process; so one should be careful not to over-dramatise it. If someone is trying to find fissures (between the United States and Israel), it will be very hard to find them, but that is not to suggest that we agree on everything. But, yes, we are at a crossroads. We do believe strongly in Israel that we urgently need to get back to the negotiating table. There is no point in putting preconditions down because if we all start doing that, then we are predetermining the outcome of the negotiations before they actually have taken off in any seriousness. So we really have a great deal of difficulty in understanding in all honesty why all of a sudden the Palestinian Authority has placed this condition or that condition. Second, this agreement between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas is something that places us backwards. Hamas, in a way, is West Asia’s Al Qaeda. It is an extremist organisation dedicated to the eradication of the State of Israel and is anti-Semitic by its own charter and it has not moved one iota from the demands of the international community that it accept Israel’s existence, that it accept previous agreements reached between Israelis and Palestinians, and stop massacring people. I must stress that these are not conditions placed by Israel; these are placed by the Quartet, by the international community, on Hamas, and they have not met them. We do see in Mahmoud Abbas a serious and pragmatic partner, we do see in the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organisation) an institution with which we can achieve peace, but we do not at this stage at all (visualise) the Hamas entering into that arena.

Q: How does Israel view the Palestinians’ move to seek a vote in the United Nations recognising Palestine as a sovereign country?

A: We, of course, disagree with it entirely. We don’t have dozens of countries that will support us. A former foreign minister of Israel, Abba Eban, has said that if Israel were to propose in the UN that the world was round, the UN will vote that it was flat. Anything [that is done] in the UN is a priori geared against Israel. We believe the way for the establishment of a Palestinian state should be through negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, that is the way to move forward. Actually we are not that far apart: we both agree on a two-state solution. But, of course, the devil is in the details. A lot of discussion is necessary, and it is not going to be easy, but scoring points is not going to move forward any type of peace process in West Asia.

Q: How do you see the emergence of representative governments following the popular uprisings in Israel’s neighbourhood?

A: I think a moving away from authoritarian leadership towards democracy is almost automatically positive. It cannot be negative when people are able to find an expression of their views and freedoms that were denied to them. This has to be positive and I think there will be positive spinoffs as well.

Q: The US and the European Union have imposed further sanctions on Iran. How would you describe the current thinking in Israel on Iran?

A: There is a difference between the people of Iran and the regime, and one must make this distinction. It is so tragic that they have at the helm a leadership of hate, a regime dedicated to the destruction of Israel, denying the Holocaust, striving for nuclear arms in order to carry out the destruction of the world’s only Jewish country. Why should we sit idly by when this is happening? And we won’t. The Jewish people have suffered throughout history at attempts to annihilate. Our supposed annihilators have always been annihilated. We will never lose in this struggle against those who would do us ill. When we say never again after the Holocaust, we mean never again. And when (Iran talks about) killing and murdering Israelis, it is something that we cannot of course take, and watch idly as it does this.

Germany joins chorus of concern about Pakistan

New Delhi
27 May 2011

Germany added its voice Friday to the chorus of concern over Pakistan's
attitude towards terrorism by asking it to come clean on the extent of its links with
terrorist groups.

Talking to journalists ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to India next week,
Germany's ambassador Thomas Matussek said there were worries about possible
collaboration of parts of Pakistan's security apparatus with terrorists.

In Islamabad, visiting US secretary of state Hillary Clinton asked Pakistan to take
decisive steps against terrorists operating from its soil. She said Osama bin Laden is
dead but Al Qaeda and its syndicate of terror remain a serious threat to world peace.

Mr Matussek said defence and security dialogue will be a part of what Germany calls
"inter-governmental consultations" with India. It will be the first of its kind with a non-
European country, with the exception of Israel.

The German ministers of foreign affairs, defence, transport, education, trade, and
environment, will join Ms Merkel in delegation-level talks and hold separate meetings
with their Indian counterparts.

Other bilateral issues such as trade, science and technology, vocational training, and
skills development, and regional and global issues such as Afghanistan, Libya, United
Nations security council (UNSC) reform, can be expected to be an integral part of the
discussions.

Germany and India are members of the Group of Four (G-4), along with Brazil and Japan,
which are jointly pushing for permanent UNSC seats.

External affairs minister SM Krishna was expected to participate in a conference on
Afghanistan to be held in Bonn on December 5.

Mr Matussek said the weakening of Al Qaeda after Osama bin Laden's death and the
reinforced political process provided a realistic chance for the international efforts in
Afghanistan to succeed.