Showing posts with label US. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US. Show all posts

‘Together We Can’

[This article was first published by Tehelka (www.tehelka.com) on 1 October 2014 under the headline 'Together We Can'.]

Can Modi and Obama put the fizz back in the India-US relationship? Asks Ramesh Ramachandran

The year was 1993. Three young men reached New Delhi to catch a midnight flight to the United States. Since they had time on their hands, they caught up with each other at the designated time before proceeding together to their destination in Lutyens’ Delhi for a meeting with a senior colleague. Their appointment was for 11 am. The host, an elderly gentleman, enquired about their well-being before launching himself into a tutorial on manners, etiquette and protocol. “Dress smart and get a shave. You would be representing the country,” he said, almost father-like. So, in the evening, the three men dutifully located a barber’s shop and did as ordered. That was how a clean-shaven Narendra Damodardas Modi made his way to the US. The elderly gentleman in question was LK Advani, who was then the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, while Modi’s two associates were Ananth Kumar and G Kishan Reddy.

Modi might have deferred to Advani and shaved off his beard (it has been the RSS pracharak-turned-prime minister’s constant companion for decades now), but he would not relent on the dress code, choosing kurta-pyjama over shirt and trousers. The BJP had nominated Modi, Kumar and Reddy for a US government-sponsored exchange programme organised by the American Council of Young Political Leaders. Modi and Kumar were then the BJP general secretaries in charge Gujarat and Karnataka, respectively; Reddy was the secretary of the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, the youth wing of the BJP.

Modi spent a month criss-crossing the US, travelling to eight states and meeting with a diverse group of American lawmakers, governors and mayors. His itinerary included a visit to a NASA facility, where he interacted with some Indian scientists, and a series of meetings with the Indian diaspora.

Little did he or America or, for that matter, much of India know then that someone who posed for the camera (see photograph below) outside the White House would, come 2014, be welcomed with a red carpet by its occupant. This, after having treated him as persona non grata for close to a decade.

On 18 March 2005, the US Department of State denied Modi a diplomatic visa and also revoked his existing tourist/business visa. Modi had planned to visit Florida to address a gathering of Indian-American hotel owners, but the US government invoked the International Religious Freedom Act (the only time it has been applied so far) among other legislations against him after an organisation called the Coalition Against Genocide alleged that he had violated certain religious freedoms.

Since then, Modi had become a veritable pariah for some in the West; Asia, in contrast, was more hospitable to him. Modi visited China, Japan and Israel as the Gujarat chief minister. The US has still not revoked the ban (Modi became eligible for an A1 visa by virtue of being a head of government).

Some US lawmakers such as Ed Royce, chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, and Aaron Schock, both Republicans, have publicly said that the US should have reversed the visa ban. Schock has even described the ban as “a huge mistake”.

However, the controversy refuses to die down. Days before Modi landed in the US, a New York court issued summons against him for his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots. The US has since made it known that not only do heads of foreign governments enjoy immunity from American lawsuits but they cannot be personally served or handed court summons. An Indian court has since cleared Modi of complicity in the 2002 riots and today the world is sitting up and taking notice of Modi, the prime minister. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Modi used to be a four-letter word but not anymore.

Frequent Traveller

Modi is no stranger to America. After his 1993 tour, Modi was to play an instrumental role again in 1999 in the wake of the Kargil conflict when he was deputed to lobby with the US lawmakers for adopting a resolution critical of Pakistan. The resolution threatened to cut off financial aid to Pakistan if it did not withdraw its forces from the territory held by India.

Modi’s travels are in stark contrast to that of Barack Obama. The only time Obama visited India before becoming the US president was in 1981. That year, as a 20-year-old student, he travelled first to Jakarta in Indonesia to meet his mother and step-sister and then to Karachi in Pakistan before rounding off his trip with a visit to Hyderabad in India.

The only other Indian connection to Obama then was his college mate, Vinai Thummalapally, who served as the US ambassador to Belize (the first Indian-American ambassador in US history) and is now the executive director of SelectUSA, which was established under the US Department of Commerce by Obama to showcase the US as the world’s premier business location and attract FDI into the country.

Thummalapally visited India before Modi’s visit to the US; he travelled to New Delhi, Hyderabad, Coimbatore, Bengaluru and Mumbai to meet Indian business leaders. (Thummalapally and certain other Indian-Americans in the Obama administration such as Nisha Biswal, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs in the US State Department, and USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah were among the guests invited to a dinner hosted by Obama at the White House in honour of Modi.)

Some in the BJP and the RSS sought to project Modi’s talks with Obama as any other bilateral meeting that an Indian prime minister holds on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Put differently, Modi travelled to the US primarily for participating in the UNGA debate, on the sidelines of which he also held talks with Obama.

A competing view is that Modi travelled to the US after his meetings with Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping, which to some foreign policy analysts, was by design. The message that Modi sought to send out was that the centre of gravity was shifting to Asia, the power equations were changing and therefore it makes sense for India to start a dialogue with Japan and China without belittling the role of the US.

Over the next three decades, China and India are expected to become the first and the third largest economies, respectively (the US would be placed second). So, in terms of heft, these three countries would be more or less at par and they would dominate global economy and politics for some time to come.

Personal Chemistry

In many ways, Modi’s visit to the US will be an opportunity for American officials, lawmakers and corporates to get to know him as well as he does America. And it needs to begin with Obama.

“With Modi’s arrival in Washington, Obama has a rare second chance to get India right after this country’s ties with New Delhi atrophied over the past two years,” wrote Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former US undersecretary of state for political affairs (2005-08) and lead US negotiator of the US-India civil nuclear agreement, in The Washington Post. “A US-India renaissance would bring the added benefit of clear bipartisan support at home. Bill Clinton began the US effort to define a more practical foreign policy partnership with India at the end of his time in office. George W Bush had great success in moulding close security and counterterrorism connections to the Indian government. There is a Republican-Democratic consensus in Washington that India can be one of our central 21st-century partners. Now, it is time for Obama to make his mark with India.”

Ashley Tellis, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a private thinktank based in Washington, believes that “the quality of the personal relations between leaders makes a difference to the way in which they conduct foreign policy. And especially among friendly nations, such as the United States and India, relationships make a huge difference to whether the outcomes of summits are prosaic or momentous”.

However, Obama does not have time on his side. According to Lalit Mansingh, a former foreign secretary and a former Indian ambassador to the US, Obama is fast becoming a lame-duck president, and even if the US wants to, there is only a limited amount of support he can give to this partnership in the remaining two years of his last term. “Modi is ascendant but Obama is descendent,” cautions Mansingh.

With Modi at the helm, there is an opportunity for the US to reboot its relationship with India. Unlike former prime minister Manmohan Singh, whose instinct by virtue of having worked as a civil servant was to preserve, Modi is a politician who seeks to transform. Tellis feels that one of the primary tasks for Obama and Modi would be to rejuvenate the concept of strategic partnership.

“Today, US policymakers across a wide spectrum are perplexed by what the phrase ‘strategic partnership’ actually means (insofar as) India is concerned,” says Tellis. “After an interregnum of desultory conversations, Modi’s visit to Washington presents a great opportunity to reconsider this issue. Beyond platitudes about democracy and common values, it is important that both sides have an honest conversation about the kind of relationship they seek and what it obligates mutually. Modi and Obama are both plain-speaking men and should have no difficulty conducting the type of conversation their predecessor governments once had. If they do so, the bilateral because it will leave little room for exaggerated or misplaced expectations on either side.”

Dinner Diplomacy

By all indications Obama set out to do just that when he greeted Modi with a “Kem Chho?” (how are you?) in Gujarati at the private dinner he hosted for a select group of officials that comprised, among others, Vice-President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and National Security Adviser Susan Rice on the US side and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh on the Indian side. The host had taken great care with the menu, offering only vegetarian dishes in deference to Modi, who was observing the Navratri fast.

The two seemed to have hit it off almost immediately given the similarities in their respective election campaigns, their digital savvy, the manner in which both leaders overcame odds to come to occupy the high office and how they both transformed themselves from being the proverbial outsider to the consummate insider. The two leaders issued a Vision Statement, which was titled “Chalein Saath Saath: Forward Together We Go”. It said, among other things, the following:

• “Through intense consultations, joint exercises, and shared technology, our security cooperation will make the region and the world safe and secure. Together, we will combat terrorist threats and keep our homelands and citizens safe from attacks”;

• “We will prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and remain committed to reducing the salience of nuclear weapons, while promoting universal, verifiable, and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament”;

• “We will partner to ensure that both countries have affordable, clean, reliable and diverse sources of energy, including through our efforts to bring American- origin nuclear power technologies to India”

• “We will support an open and inclusive rulesbased global order, in which India assumes greater multilateral responsibility, including in a reformed UN Security Council”;

• “The US and India commit to expand and deepen our strategic partnership in order to harness the inherent potential of our two democracies and the burgeoning ties between our people, economies, and businesses. Together, we seek a reliable and enduring friendship that bolsters security and stability, contributes to the global economy and advances peace and prosperity for our citizens and throughout the world”; and

• “We have a vision that the US and India will have a transformative relationship as trusted partners in the 21st century. Our partnership will be a model for the rest of the world”

While paying homage to the victims of the 9/11 attacks in New York, Modi said India and the US were allies in the fight against terrorism

Bilateral Talks

In an op-ed article jointly penned by Modi and Obama, which was published by The Washington Post on the morning of 30 September before the delegation-level talks got under way, they emphasised on the need to “set a new agenda”. A relevant portion from the op-ed read: “With a reinvigorated level of ambition and greater confidence, we can go beyond modest and conventional goals.”

Both leaders got an opportunity to set out the contours of that agenda when they jointly addressed the media soon after the conclusion of their talks. Modi spoke about “shared interests” in furthering defence relations and security dialogue with the US. Expectedly, the “framework for the US-India defence relationship” was renewed for another 10 years. It was signed in 2005 for a 10-year period. India invited US defence companies to come and support India’s defence manufacturing industry. For its part, the US agreed to cooperate as a knowledge partner for India’s planned National Defence University.

Modi reaffirmed India’s commitment to pursuing civil nuclear energy cooperation with the US and resolving all issues, without specifically referring to the Nuclear Liability Act. An India-US group would be tasked to address all outstanding issues and speed up deployment of US-origin nuclear reactors in India.

He urged Obama to allow the Indian service sector easy access to the US markets. Both sides had candid talks on the WTO (World Trade Organisation) negotiations. Modi conveyed to Obama that India supports trade facilitation as long as India’s food security concerns are taken care of.

Regional and global issues figured prominently in the talks, too. China, for one, was the proverbial elephant in the room. The details of their conversations on Washington’s rebalance towards Asia, maritime security and the global commons are not likely to be made known in a hurry because of the sensitive nature of the issues involved.

All that Modi ventured to say in the course of a joint press statement with Obama after the conclusion of their talks was that peace and security in the Asia-Pacific was of paramount importance and that there was a convergence of views regarding the region between India and the US. The US, he was quick to add, was “intrinsic” to India’s Look East Policy.

Significantly, an India-US Joint Statement issued towards the end of the bilateral talks said that India, the US and Japan would explore holding their trilateral dialogue at the level of foreign ministers and “work more closely with other Asia-Pacific countries through consultations, dialogues, and joint exercises”.

However, it needs to be said here that while the US might expect India to play a more robust role in East Asia, Modi is handicapped by a dissonance within India’s strategic community on how to deal with China.

Delivering the 25th late Air Chief Marshal PC Lal Memorial Lecture in New Delhi on 26 March 2008, the then national security adviser, MK Narayanan, had said that a “national consensus across the board” was required on issues such as whether “China is a threat or is China a neighbour that we can go along with”. Six years later, New Delhi is still none the wiser about Beijing’s intentions, particularly in light of recent incidents along the undemarcated border between the two neighbours.

(Even as Modi held talks with US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, the Ministry of External Affairs put out a statement conveying that the border commanders of India and China had met at Spanggur Gap earlier in the day and that the stand-off in Chumar and Demchok areas had been successfully terminated.)

Pakistan came up for discussion in the context of the challenges posed by terrorism in South Asia and beyond. Deepening and broadening the counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation was particularly flagged by Modi. Both sides agreed to work together to disrupt financial and tactical support for terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), the Haqqani network and Dawood Ibrahim’s D-Company, all of which are linked to Pakistan. Dawood is wanted in India in connection with the 1993 Mumbai serial blasts case. India and the US also agreed to collaborate to dismantle safe havens for terrorist and criminal networks.

In the run-up to the summit meeting, Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (a private think-tank in the US) and a former CIA analyst, had contended in a “India-US policy memo” that “counterterrorism cooperation with India should include robust intelligence exchange on Pakistan’s terrorist connections, particularly the ISI-LeT connection. Another LeT attack like Mumbai or Herat will provoke the most serious crisis in years between India and Pakistan — the more that can be done to prevent such a disaster, the better. Even if an attack cannot be foiled, the more information exchanged about Pakistani involvement with LeT, the more likely the US will have credibility with New Delhi if a crisis occurs”.

Riedel also said, “The US should also consider a unilateral step: Placing Pakistan on the State Department list of terrorist sponsor states. It certainly meets the criteria and has for decades. The first Bush administration seriously considered this step in 1992. Such a step would obviously have immense consequences for US-Pakistan relations. A more limited step would be to target specific sanctions against individual Pakistani officials involved in supporting terrorism like members of isi’s ‘S’ branch that handles liaison with let, the Haqqani network, and others. A targeted counterterrorism sanctions move against specific Pakistani officials would send a strong deterrent message to the Pakistani Army and could be a warning shot before putting Pakistan on the terror patron state list.”

And as incidence would have it, the US Treasury Department on 30 September took action against Harkat ul-Mujahideen (HuM) and the LeT by naming some individuals associated with them as Specially Designated Global Terrorists. “Both LeT and HuM are violent terrorist organisations that train militants and support the activities of many of the best known and brutal extremist groups, including al-Qaeda,” US Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David Cohen said, adding that “today’s designations will disrupt efforts by these terrorist organisations to access their financial networks and the international financial system”.

The foreign secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan were called off last month after the Pakistan high commissioner to India met with Hurriyat leaders disregarding New Delhi’s objections. Pakistan carried forward the cold vibes to the UNGA where Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif harped on Jammu and Kashmir. Modi, uncharacteristically, did not join issue with Sharif, as some had expected him to do; instead, Modi reiterated India’s position that it was willing to resume a dialogue with Pakistan so long as those talks are held in “an atmosphere of peace, without a shadow of terrorism”.

Those developments came close on the heels of Modi inviting leaders of Pakistan and other SAARC countries for his swearing-in ceremony this May. A Pakistan-based terrorist group had attacked the Indian consulate in Herat, Afghanistan, just days before he was sworn in.

Significantly, unlike previous years, the leaders of India and Pakistan did not meet in New York. Last year, the then prime minister Manmohan Singh met with his Pakistan counterpart on the margins of the UNGA, defying public sentiment and in spite of an overwhelming body of evidence of Pakistan’s complicity in allowing its territory to be used for mounting terrorist attacks against India and Indian interests, at home and abroad alike.

Incidentally, the history of India-Pakistan bilateral engagements is replete with an unending series of terrorist attacks interspersed with peace talks, an overwhelming majority of which were held in third countries on the margins of multilateral summits.

Last year’s meeting between Manmohan and Sharif in New York was but one in a long list of bilateral engagements starting with the 2006 Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Havana, Cuba; the 2008 Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing, China; the 2008 UNGA session in New York; the 2009 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia; the 2009 NAM Summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt; and the 2010 South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Summit in Thimphu, Bhutan.

Modi at the Madison Square Garden in New York
Afghanistan was an obvious talking point. India not only reiterated its commitment to working along with Afghanistan for regional peace and security but also improving its coordination with the US on Afghanistan.

Modi revealed his mind when he told the Council on Foreign Relations, an independent think-tank in New York, that he would like the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan to be “slow” and carried out in a calibrated manner; otherwise, he felt, Afghanistan could go the Iraq way. He also said that terrorism was a phenomenon that needed to be tackled globally.

In a related development, on 30 September, the new government of Afghanistan headed by President Ashraf Ghani signed a much-delayed bilateral security agreement with the US, which will, among other things, provide the residual troops, numbering about 12,000, immunity from criminal prosecution after a majority of the US and NATO forces leave Afghanistan by the year-end. Riedel argues that the US should “seek to work with India and Afghanistan” given the fact that India is already increasing its capabilities in Afghanistan and working closely with the Afghan government.

Modi and Obama also discussed the situation in West Asia. The US is keen to see India join a ‘coalition’ of 40-odd countries that supports a US-led campaign against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. However, India has traditionally been averse to taking part in any operation that is not held under the UN flag.

There is no gainsaying that intent alone will not help to translate Obama and Modi’s vision for the India-US relationship into reality. Cold logic will probably dictate and determine the future course of the bilateral ties.

Modi alluded to it when, in an oblique reference to irritants in the relationship, he used marriage as a metaphor to point out that even happily-married couples have fights and maybe there was no need to seek comfort on all issues in a relationship. “One does not have to be comfortable about everything. Even between a husband and wife 100 percent comfort is not possible,” he said, revealing the pragmatic side of his personality.

Modi knows only too well that there are pockets of resistance even within his own party to issues such as GM crops, FDI in multi-brand retail, WTO negotiations and an Indian education system modelled on the US four-year undergraduate programme.

If Obama and Modi succeed in enabling their respective bureaucracies to overcome the inertia that has bedevilled them for the past few years, then it should not come as a surprise if both sides make considerable progress on some of these issues in the coming months. So, going forward, expect love and heartache in equal measure.



The India-US Joint Statement: Pledges and commitments

• Establish an India-US Investment Initiative with special focus on capital market development and financing of infrastructure

• Establish an Infrastructure Collaboration Platform to enhance participation of US companies in infrastructure projects in India

• Have the US industry as the lead partner in developing smart cities in Ajmer (Rajasthan), Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) and Allahabad (Uttar Pradesh)

• Establish an annual high-level Intellectual Property Working Group with appropriate decision-making and technical-level meetings as part of the Trade Policy Forum

• Established a Contact Group on advancing the implementation of civil nuclear energy cooperation

• A new and enhanced strategic partnership on energy security, clean energy and climate change

• A new US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience entailing a new programme of work on air quality aimed at delivering benefits for climate change and human health

• Reinvigorate the political-military dialogue and expand its role to serve as a wider dialogue on export licensing, defence cooperation and strategic cooperation

• Enhance exchanges of civilian and military intelligence and consultation

• Intensify Cooperation in maritime security to ensure freedom of navigation and unimpeded movement of lawful shipping and commercial activity; also upgrade their existing bilateral exercise MALABAR

• Reaffirmed their shared interest in preserving regional peace and stability, which are critical to the Asia-Pacific region’s continued prosperity; expressed concern about rising tensions over maritime territorial disputes and affirmed the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea




Vajpayee and Modi at the UNGA

There are some interesting comparisons between Narendra Modi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee insofar as their participation in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) debates is concerned. Vajpayee became the first Indian to speak in Hindi at the 32nd session of the UNGA on 4 October 1977. Vajpayee was also the first Indian prime minister to speak in Hindi at the Millennium Summit in 2000. Modi is only the second Indian prime minister to speak in Hindi at the UNGA. In 1977, the Janata government had been in office for barely six months. In Modi’s case, the NDA government was only four months old when he addressed the UNGA.

While Modi chose to focus on yoga, terrorism, climate change, environment and development, Vajpayee dwelt on the regional situation in Asia and Africa, including the Israel-Palestine conflict. Vajpayee also focussed at some length on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. He said, “… we are prepared to cooperate wholeheartedly with other countries in discussing ways and means of putting an end to the danger of nuclear weapons. It is both urgent and necessary for the political mind to free itself of military logic and for the political will to assert the force of reason and reverse the nuclear arms race in the direction of nuclear disarmament.” Modi, however, used boilerplate language on disarmament, saying: “Let us continue to redouble our efforts to pursue universal global disarmament and non-proliferation.”


Looking in the rearview mirror

It would be instructive to look back at the road travelled in order to better appreciate the present and future trajectory of the India-US relationship. India’s engagement with the US over the past 65-odd years divides itself into three phases. The major phase, spread over the first 50 years, coincided with the Cold War. That was followed by five years of transition and then 10 years of a strategic partnership.The first 50 years were ideal because the world was getting divided into power blocs and the US believed that India was not really non-aligned and that it was with the Soviet bloc; hence, everything that the Americans did was coloured with that perception. Also, since India refused to join the US-led power bloc, it got a backlash in terms of minimal investments and minimal transfer of technologies. What compounded the hostility from the US side was the fact that India exploded a nuclear device in 1974; with that came sanctions on technology transfers and acquisition of high-technology items.A big thaw came towards the end of Bill Clinton’s term as US president. Clinton was very fundamentalist on nuclear issues; his policy was to cap, roll back and eliminate India’s nuclear programme. He was pursuing it relentlessly and then the 1998 nuclear tests took place. Strobe Talbott, the then US deputy secretary of state, recalled a furious Clinton asking why the US agencies could not detect the Indian nuclear tests. Clinton was as angry with India as he was with his own officials, especially given that the US State Department came to know about the tests from CNN, and the CIA, in turn, learnt about the tests from the State Department. Subsequently, further sanctions were imposed on India.

If one were to identity the lowest point in the India-US relationship, it would have to be 1998, but oddly enough, it was also to be the beginning of a new relationship. An 18-month-long dialogue between Talbott and the then external affairs minister, Jaswant Singh, paved the way for Clinton’s visit to India in 2000; and the equations changed thereafter.

The India-US strategic partnership was cemented in 2005 after Manmohan Singh visited the US for talks with George W Bush. Both sides agreed to pursue civil nuclear cooperation and boost their defence ties.

However, there were differences of perception on what this strategic partnership meant. While the US discussed about the distant future and shared values, India worried about more immediate problems such as sanctions; it wanted three specific issues to be resolved before both sides could start talking about the future. First was transfer of high-technology; second, nuclear cooperation; and the third was space. A high point in the bilateral relationship was the signing of the civil nuclear cooperation agreement in 2008.

However, the years that followed were pretty staid for the relationship. The 2012 Budget was a lightning rod of sorts for the US businesses to start criticising India for retrospective taxation, unfriendly investment conditions and uncertainty about future economic reforms.

Last year, the relations plummeted after Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade was strip-searched for allegedly mistreating her maid.

And earlier this year, the National Association of Manufacturers petitioned the US government and the US Congress that sanctions be imposed on India for violating its international trade obligations. The US Trade Representative toyed with the idea of placing India under a special category of countries, which would have invited mandatory sanctions by the US Congress. “If that had happened, it would have been like a declaration of war” against India, said a source tracking India-US ties. “Nothing would have prevented the countries from drifting further apart.” Fortunately, that was not to happen.

However, bitterness was building up, mainly from the US industry side. In India, there was a feeling that under Obama, the urge to forge a bond with India was not there. Obama was not George W Bush. Bush may have been criticised for some of his policies but one policy that survived was his decision to enter into a strategic partnership with India. Some Indians felt that Obama was not investing in the partnership.

A more charitable view was that Obama was buffeted by crises at home and abroad, such as the state of the US economy, Arab Spring, Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, which contributed to the drift.
Clearly, the fizz had gone out of the relationship.



Will reality bite the diaspora?

Promises have been offered at a dizzying pace, but their realisation will take its own sweet time
After the euphoria, the hard news. And after the politician’s extravagant promises, the bureaucrat’s caution. It is authoritatively learnt that Narendra Modi’s promise to merge the scheme for Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) with that for Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) will take time to become a reality.

Security establishments will provide their inputs and seek to plug existing loopholes before going full steam with the merger. Apart from the security establishment, the Bureau of Immigration will look closely into the implications that the merger may entail.

There are certain other vital areas as well. The merger, it has been clarified, will not lead to dual citizenship anytime in the near future. Diplomatic circles aver that the issue of dual citizenship is not only nettlesome but has dangerous ramifications in a South Asian context, what with PIOs abounding in countries such as Nepal and Sri Lanka, a situation fraught with complications.

As things stand, PIO cards are given to those Indians who have been residing abroad for no less than two generations. On the other hand, OCI cards are given to those abroad of more recent vintage.

Other specifics include the fact that while PIOs get visas for a specific timeframe and have to currently go through some bother of visiting the Foreigner Regional Registration Office or the police to extend visas, an OCI card is enough for its holder to enter the country for an undefined period of time.

Modi meeting members of the Indian-American community
PIOs will be hopeful that once the two schemes are merged, they could also avail visa-free travel in India, residential rights and participation in business activities.

The merger scheme has a history — the upa government in its second term promised to deliver the goods but failed. The upa scheme has now come in handy for Modi, if and when it is implemented.
Attractive as the OCI is, existing rules stipulate that the OCI registration certificate and visa have to be reissued every time a new passport is acquired, up to the completion of 20 years of age and once after 50.

When it was introduced nine years ago, the OCI card was touted as proof of the government’s seriousness about wooing the diaspora. People were pushed to give up the PIO card as OCI was considered PIO-plus. The lifelong duration promise was tantalisingly dangled even at that time.
Additionally, other than allowing the holding of agricultural property and granting the vote, it put OCI cardholders at par with Indian citizens. It sounded like a dream scenario for non-residents, but it never got implemented. Further, OCI applications have to be sent to India, and for Washington, the processing time has been given as 90 days. In practical terms, an OCI cardholder is effectively without an Indian visa for three months minimum as far as Indian-Americans are concerned.
There has been a demand that the OCI card can be a standalone document without the need for another visa stamp in the passport. An OCI costs $475 and the hope being expressed is that at least the hugely convoluted process has been jettisoned, as promised by Modi.

There is optimism that the US will make a reciprocal gesture and offer India membership in its ‘Global Entry’ traveller network. The US does provide the facility to citizens of a clutch of countries such as Canada, South Korea and Mexico.

By the time the Pravasi Bharatiya Divas is held in January 2015 — this time in Gandhinagar, Gujarat — the euphoria of Modi’s US proclamation will no doubt have died down. The diaspora, with its entitlement attitude, may have discovered that the ubiquitous red tape is preventing instant gratification of the type they are so used to in the West.


Incidentally, embassies and consulates across the world are propagating the event thus: “Since 2015 marks the hundredth anniversary of the return of the greatest ‘pravasi’ of all, Mahatma Gandhi from South Africa, it is desired that Pravasi Bharatiya Divas would be celebrated in a grand way.” Whether those who went abroad in determined pursuit of material wealth would have any time for Gandhi’s message of “simple living, high thinking” will be interesting to touch.

Sanctions won't help, a combative Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad warns US allies; Damascus banks on IBSA support in UNSC

Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad

New Delhi
2 August 2011

Dismissing the latest tranche of sanctions as futile, Syria has said that the European Union (EU) is mistaken if it believes it can extract "political concessions" from the government headed by President Bashar al-Assad.

The EU on Tuesday added Syrian defence minister Ali Habib Mahmud and
four others to its sanctions blacklist.

In an exclusive interview to this newspaper in New Delhi, a combative Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad accused the US, EU and Israel of "provoking" violence in his country and attempting to do a Libya in Syria.

"It is very clear they want to repeat the same aggression committed by the NATO against Libya on Syria," Mr Mekdad said, alluding to moves by the US and its European allies to revive a draft United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution condemning Syria for its crackdown on protesters.

He is reasonably sanguine that the IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa), all three of whom currently are non-permanent UNSC members, along with Russia and China, would not encourage adoption of the resolution.

"What prevented the Security Council for the last three months from adopting a resolution is the understanding shown by the friends of Syria. I think this time their [the US and its European allies] attempts will fail again," he said.

The only time Mr Mekdad struck an apparently conciliatory note was when he said that Syria was "ready to cooperate with Europe" provided the terms of engagement were "on equal basis with mutual respect and understanding".

However, he was categorical that "if the objective of the US and its European allies was to help Israel preserve its hegemony and exercise its hegemony on the entire region then they are wrong."

"... what we are looking for is just and comprehensive peace where Israel withdraws from the occupied Arab territories from West Bank and Gaza, from the Syrian Golan and from southern Lebanon, and establishment of an independent Palestine state. This is the way we can establish [peace] but their support of Israel and their attempts to give Israel the peace and the land will lead nowhere."

Mr Mekdad noted that Syria was paying a price for being "the last post of resistance against European, American and Israeli pressures."

He added: "Any meeting between post-Hosni Mubarak Egypt and Syria is very dangerous for American and Israeli and Western interests in the region. That is why they have to destroy Syria before it establishes good, normal relations with new Egypt."

Mr Mekdad, who called on external affairs minister SM Krishna on Monday, said the "help and support received from India at international fora is very important."

India on Monday assumed the rotating presidency of the UNSC for the month of August.

Calling for "strategic" ties between India and West Asia generally and Syria in particular, Mr Mekdad said, "Syria and developing countries should now look to the east rather than to the west [and we] need to develop South-South cooperation."



Clippings from The Asian Age (top), Deccan Chronicle's Bengaluru edition (bottom left), and from Deccan Chronicle's Hyderabad edition (bottom right)

*******

As Krishna leaves for Indonesia, Clinton asks India to counter China's aggression with assertiveness; Manmohan Singh to skip Commonwealth summit

New Delhi
20 July 2011

India was expected to continue its recently concluded discussions with the US on the Chinese aggression in east- and south-east Asia, with other countries in Indonesia this week.

External affairs minister SM Krishna will travel to Bali for the ninth India-Asean post-ministerial conference, the East Asia Summit (EAS) foreign ministers' consultations, and the Asean Regional Forum ministerial meeting on Friday and Saturday.

The situation in east Asia was discussed in the India-US strategic dialogue in New Delhi on Tuesday. The issue figured in US secretary of state Hillary Clinton's speech in Chennai on Wednesday, in which she urged India to be assertive in Asia.

"India's leadership has the potential to positively shape the future of the Asia-Pacific [and] we encourage you not just to look east, but continue to engage and act east as well," Ms Clinton said.

"The US has always been a Pacific power because of our very great blessing of geography, and India, straddling the waters from the Indian to Pacific Oceans, is with us a steward of these waterways".

She reminded New Delhi that with increased power comes increased responsibility. "As India takes on a larger role throughout the Asia-Pacific, it is also taking on new responsibilities including the duty to speak out against violations of universal human rights" in Burma, she said.

Ms Clinton and other foreign ministers, including Hina Rabbani Khar of Pakistan, would participate in the Bali meetings.

Ms Rabbani-Khar was scheduled to visit India next week for talks with Mr Krishna but they could exchange pleasantries on the margins of their meetings in Bali. However, the prime ministers of India and Pakistan would have to wait till the Saarc summit in Maldives in November for a possible meeting.

Indian and Pakistani leaders could have met in Perth, Australia, on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in October but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has opted out of attending it. In his place, Vice President Hamid Ansari would be leading the Indian delegation.

Hillary Clinton - SM Krishna strategic dialogue long on intent, short on strategy; US makes it clear to India that it will not dump Pakistan

Indian delegation led by external affairs minister SM Krishna and US delegation headed by Hillary Clinton participating in the second India - US strategic dialogue at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Tuesday, 19 July 2011

New Delhi
19 July 2011

US secretary of state Hillary Clinton interspersed her conversations in New Delhi with ifs and buts, conveying to a discerning Indian audience that the US was hedging on its commitments and, in the process, reinforcing a suspicion that the second edition of the India-US strategic dialogue was long on intent but short on strategy.

Ms Clinton's remarks during the course of her talks with external affairs minister SM Krishna on Tuesday, and a joint media event which followed it, were littered with qualifications: The US will support full civil nuclear cooperation with India but the bilateral pact has to be "enforceable and actionable in all regards"; the US stands by the clean Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver to India but the Indian nuclear liability law needs to be aligned with global practices; and, the US government cannot tolerate safe havens for terrorists anywhere but "we do see Pakistan as a key ally" in the war on terror and "we want a long-term relationship with" it.

There was no express commitment from Ms Clinton to either sell or to allow the sale of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to India following the NSG decision to bar their sale to non-NPT signatories such as India. There was no mention of it in the joint statement either. All she would venture to say in response to a question posed to her at the media interaction was that Washington supports the September 2008 clean waiver for India and it will push for India's membership of multilateral export control regimes such as the NSG.

Instead, Ms Clinton hastened to remind India of its commitment to ensure a level playing field for US companies seeking to enter the Indian nuclear energy sector. She voiced Washington's desire to see the Indian nuclear liability law tweaked to protect American corporate interests.

"We would encourage engagement with the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure that the liability regime that India adopts by law fully conforms with the international requirements under the convention[.] We are committed to [the nuclear pact.] But we do expect it to be enforceable and actionable in all regards," Ms Clinton noted.

She also reminded New Delhi to ratify the Convention on Supplementary Compensation by the end of 2011. The treaty will allow foreign companies supplying nuclear material and technology to India to tap into a global corpus of funds in order to pay damages in the event of a nuclear accident.

Amplifying Ms Clinton's remarks, the joint statement said that the participation of US nuclear energy firms in India should be on the basis of "mutually acceptable technical and commercial terms and conditions that enable a viable tariff regime for electricity generated."

Dwelling on regional issues, Ms Clinton said that Pakistan has "a special obligation to [cooperate] transparently, fully and urgently" in the interest of justice for the victims of the 26/11 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. She iterated that the US will continue to urge Pakistan to bring the 26/11 terrorists to justice but she qualified it by saying that "there is a limit to what both the United States and India can do".

Ms Clinton said that sale of defence technologies will help the Indian and American militaries to work together on maritime security, combating piracy, and providing relief to the victims of natural disasters. She also pushed for market access, reduction of trade barriers, and US investments in India, indicating that Washington viewed its ties with India in transactional, not strategic, terms.

For India's part, Mr Krishna sought to impress upon the American delegation that it was necessary for the US to factor in Afghanistan's ground realities and work closely with President Hamid Karzai's government so that conditions could be created where terrorists did not make any more advances in Afghanistan.

Mr Krishna said that India and the US had agreed to resume negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty. He urged the US to consider a "totalisation agreement" with India for the purpose of avoiding double taxation of income with respect to social security taxes. The agreement is essential for determining whether an Indian national is subject to the US social security or medicare tax or Indian social security taxes.

A bilateral aviation safety agreement and a memorandum of understanding on cyber security were the two tangible outcomes of the India-US dialogue.

Ms Clinton called on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and met with UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, leader of opposition in the Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj, and national security adviser Shivshankar Menon, among others.

India backs Rabbani on Taliban talks; will discuss issue with Clinton next week

External affairs minister SM Krishna of India shaking hands with Prof Burhanuddin Rabbani, chairman of the Afghanistan high peace council, in New Delhi on Thursday

New Delhi
14 July 2011

Burhanuddin Rabbani, who heads a panel which has the Afghanistan government's mandate to negotiate peace with the Taliban, would not mind using the good offices of India for finding a political solution to the strife in his country.

India is an important country in the region and we want its cooperation in peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan, Mr Rabbani said on the occasion of his talks with external affairs minister SM Krishna in New Delhi on Thursday.

Mr Rabbani is on a four-day visit to India.

Afghans should not be victims in the hands of others to be used against the Afghan people themselves, Mr Rabbani said without elaborating. He noted that regional countries had a role in promoting peace in Afghanistan.

India was expected to discuss the situation in Afghanistan with US secretary of state Hillary Clinton when she visits New Delhi next week.

Talking to journalists, US charge d'affaires Peter Burleigh said Afghanistan could figure "prominently" in the Clinton-Krishna talks, in which the relations between and among the US, India and Pakistan would be "thoroughly covered".

Burleigh described the Taliban reconciliation talks as a "very important issue" for the US and India alike.

The US was keeping India informed of the substance of the "very preliminary discussions" that have taken place with the Taliban interlocutors.

The diplomat went on to note that the negotiations for "reaching an understanding" with "some Taliban elements" were making "slow process", and the talks could be expected to "continue for months".

"[The US is] continuing to explore [and it] will keep India directly informed and also seek advice," Mr Burleigh said.

The situation in west Asia, north Africa, and east- and south-east Asia, was also likely to be discussed in the second strategic dialogue between Clinton and Krishna on July 19.

Replying to a question about the possible implications of the US losing out on a multi-billion tender for fighter jets for the Indian Air Force, on the defence cooperation with India, Mr Burleigh said "one contract here and there [does not] make or break [the] relationship" and that the US was in it for the long-term.

After US and Russia, France reassures India on clean NSG waiver

New Delhi
1 July 2011

After the United States and Russia, France has iterated its commitment to full civil
nuclear cooperation with India.

The French government has said that the Nuclear Suppliers Group's (NSG's) recent
decision, to bar transfer of sensitive enrichment and reprocessing technologies to non-
NPT signatories, does not undermine the waiver granted to India in September 2008.

"The decision taken by the NSG is not a measure targeting any particular State. This
decision is the fruit of prolonged discussions initiated in 2004. Coming after the decision
of exemption from the full-scope safeguards clause, adopted in favour of India in
September 2008, it does not undermine the principles of this exemption," Jerome
Bonnafont, the French ambassador to India, said.

In a statement, the envoy also said, "France confirms that this NSG decision in no way
undermines the parameters of our bilateral cooperation, and is committed to the full
implementation of our cooperation agreement on the development of peaceful uses of
nuclear energy signed on September 30, 2008."

Bonnafont emphasised that France was strongly committed to the development of an innovative, broad-based and dynamic civilian nuclear cooperation with India.

The NSG held its plenary at Noordwijk in the Netherlands in June.

Further, Bonnafont said President Nicolas Sarkozy of France announced his support for India's membership of four multilateral export control regimes during his visit to India in December 2010, and
France iterated its "full and complete support" to India's membership of the NSG in
its meeting which concluded on June 24.

In September 2008, France became the first country to sign a bilateral civilian nuclear
accord with India after the NSG granted a landmark waiver to New Delhi, reopening
global civilian nuclear commerce after a gap of 34 years. The French envoy's assurance
on his country's commitment to full civilian nuclear cooperation came a day after
outgoing US ambassador Timothy Roemer stressed that Washington was firmly
committed to NSG's clean waiver to India.

With eye on China, India to host trilateral talks with Japan, US this year; Japan does not fancy the Quadrilateral with Australia


New Delhi
29 June 2011

For Japan, three is not a crowd. Four maybe. While it agrees that a more robust Asian security architecture will be required if China's opaque military modernisation continues, for now it will be content with trilateral or three-way security dialogues involving India, Australia and the United States, without giving it the shape of a Quadrilateral or resurrecting notions of containing China. Currently, Japan has trilateral dialogues with the US and India; with the US and Australia; and with China and South Korea. India is the third country, after the US and Australia, with which Japan has the two-plus-two talks involving foreign and defence ministers. New Delhi is expected to host the inaugural India-US-Japan trilateral dialogue later this year. It will be conducted by officials, and not by foreign ministers as was mentioned in the April 8 press release issued by the ministry of external affairs after foreign secretary Nirupama Rao's talks in Tokyo. Besides discussing anti-piracy cooperation and maritime security, the talks could progressively extend to cover security and defence cooperation.

China's military rise has caused concerns in the region and beyond. Without naming China, Australian defence minister Stephen Smith recently said, "All we ask in terms of a growth of military capacity is that one is transparent as to its strategic intentions". That view is shared by Tokyo. "We keep asking the Chinese what is your intention
[but] unfortunately we have not received a convincing explanation," AKITAKA SAIKI, Japan's new ambassador to India, said Wednesday in an interaction at the Observer Research Foundation here. "While Japan has no intention to undermine good neighbourly relations with China, I hope China will be a little more sensitive to concerns expressed by its neighbours. Actions need to match words, that's my view," he observed. Mr Saiki cautioned that the future trajectory of trilateral talks would depend on Beijing's attitude.

The current Japanese sentiment stands in contrast to the churning in Australia, which has instituted a Defence Force Posture Review for addressing issues such as "the growth of military power projection capabilities of countries in the Asia Pacific" -- an indirect reference to China's reach and influence. In a recent interaction with this newspaper, Michael Auslin from the US-based American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, said that Australia, not post-tsunami Japan, could be the lead partner in the Quadrilateral. Dr John Lee from the Sydney-based Centre for Independent Studies, in turn, cited the increasing possibility of Australia lifting the ban on uranium sale to India to suggest that the perception of Australia drifting towards China was not true.

The Quadrilateral was an initiative of Shinzo Abe, who was the Japanese premier from September 2006 to September 2007. On September 4, 2007, the navies of India, Japan, the US, Australia and Singapore conducted joint naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal. However, later that year, Australia's then newly elected prime minister and current foreign minister Kevin Rudd unilaterally withdrew from the Quadrilateral Initiative. The strategic pact has remained stillborn ever since. It suffered another setback after Abe's Liberal Democratic Party lost power to the Democratic Party in 2009. India did not show any particular interest, either. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in Beijing in January 2008 that India was "not part of any so-called 'contain China' effort".