India - Pakistan detente: So, will Gah get lucky or Jatti Umra?

             

Nawaz Sharif                                              Manmohan Singh 

                     Prime Minister-elect of Pakistan                             Prime Minister of India

New Delhi
15 May 2013

M

anmohan Singh, already the third longest serving prime minister in India’s history, is hunting for a legacy ahead of the next elections scheduled in 2014. A new government has just been elected in Pakistan in what is the first ever transition from one civilian government to another in that country. Prime Minister-elect Nawaz Sharif has identified rescuing the economy as his number one priority. He has also shared his vision of peace and prosperity with India. We got a glimpse of his vision in his party’s, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)’s, election manifesto, which is entitled, “Strong economy – Strong Pakistan”. It reads: “The country could be a bridge between energy rich Central Asia and Iran on one side and energy deficit countries like China and India on the other. Pakistan’s coastal belt facilitates access to warm waters and oil rich Gulf, as well as international oil supply lines passing through the Strait of Harmuz (sic). Pakistan can also develop a flourishing transit economy because it provides the shortest land routes from Western China to the Arabian Sea, through the Gwadar Port, while linking India with Afghanistan and CAR and providing land route from Iran to India and access to the Central Asian Republics to the Arabian Sea and India for oil/gas pipelines.” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already spoken to Mr Sharif, congratulated him on his election victory and invited him to visit India. Mr Sharif, who expressed his desire to visit India in an interview to Barkha Dutt of NDTV, followed it up by saying that he would be happy if Manmohan Singh visits Pakistan for his inauguration. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) kept up the conversation by suggesting that there is no specific proposal of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visiting Pakistan as no formal invite has been received The DNA newspaper cited government “sources” as indicating that the Prime Minister could travel to Pakistan at a later date. The attendant euphoria in a section of the media and the spinmeisters in the Congress party and the government, all seem to make a point that while Manmohan Singh may have said in January this year after the beheading of an Indian soldier that “there cannot be business as usual” with Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif is a man India can do business with.

A sense of déjà vu cannot be helped here; it is only to be expected in any consideration of the history of India-Pakistan relations.

The year was 2008. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was about to complete four years in office when Pakistan went to the polls. Thirty-six days after the elections, and the evening after inauguration, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh telephoned Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani and greeted him on his assumption of office of the Prime Minister of Pakistan. By May 20, Pranab Mukherjee had landed in Islamabad for foreign minister-level talks with Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi , who was to declare the following day at a joint news conference that “our government is ready for grand reconciliation for the resolution of longstanding issues that need to be resolved peacefully through dialogue and in a manner that is dignified and commensurate with the self-respect of the involved parties”. Qureshi asserted for good measure that “it has been decided that this visit (of the Indian Prime Minister) will take place this year,” adding that “No, we cannot say it will happen this month. Both sides want that before the visit, there should be sufficient progress, for which the chances are very bright.” 

The then Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) chairman Asif Ali Zardari revealed his mind on his vision for relations with India in an interview to the Press Trust of India (PTI). Asked if he saw economics as being the driving force in bilateral relations, Mr Zardari told PTI's Pakistan correspondent: “Yes, I can’t afford 180 million people with the poverty level today, but I have got water, millions of acres of virgin lands ... I can feed India and the world. On the border with India, I have got gas and oil. I can convert all that into product and market it to myself and to India. Then, I have a 1,100-mile coastline, which is virgin.” Mr Zardari doesn't stop at that. He said Pakistan could act as a “force multiplier” for India’s economy through increased cooperation in key sectors like energy. Mr Zardari went on to suggest: “You can’t expand Kolkata port. With today’s technology, I can make 20 deep sea ports and an economic zone in Gwadar. I can have high speed cargo trains, have a 17-18 hour turnaround period from your railway lines and the products will be available to you. You cannot put up gas containers on Mumbai beach, but I can put up (on the Pakistani coastline) any number of gas containers (and acquire gas from) all sorts of friendly Muslim countries where I, the PPP and the Government of Pakistan have influence. And we dovetail it, we create economic zones owned by the people.” Mr Zardari also said in the interview that his “model for India-Pakistan relations” was to create economic zones along the India - Pakistan border, use Pakistan’s coal reserves in Thar to generate power that could be exported to India and even acquire gas from “friendly Muslim countries” that could be supplied to India. (Here it is interesting to note the statement issued after the foreign minister-level talks took care to state India and Pakistan “reiterated their commitment to the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project and had a useful exchange of views in this regard.”)

T

he current discourse on India and Pakistan reminds me of the late K Subrahmanyam. I remember talking to him in 2008, when a prime ministerial visit to Pakistan was a topic of discussion and debate within the government and without. Mr Subrahmanyam argued that a visit by the Prime Minister will strengthen the hands of the civilian government in Pakistan. “It has much more to do with lending legitimacy and showing support to the new government of Pakistan,” he said. However, he qualified it by noting that Pakistan has not stabilised yet and visiting that country now might not allow India to make full use of it. He urged patience, when I asked him about the likely outcomes or deliverables from such a visit. “Where we must move forward quickly, like the India-US nuclear deal, we don’t act fast. Where we have to be patient, we show great hurry.” Unfortunately for Mr Subrahmanyam and Indians like him, what unfolded in Mumbai on 26 November 2008 only served to test India’s patience.

With Nawaz Sharif there is more historical baggage: Kargil, 1999; and Mumbai, 1993. Both took place in his two previous stints as Prime Minister. Perhaps anticipating a sense of caution in India at Nawaz Sharif’s electoral victory, a retired Pakistani general Talat Masood has told Hindustan Times that “Nawaz Sharif is very serious about better relations with India. (President Asif Ali) Zardari was thwarted by the establishment. Being a Punjabi and a mandate from Punjab, Sharif can do much more.” Similar sentiments are shared by a section of Pakistan watchers in India. However, what New Delhi needs to appreciate is that doing a Sheikh Hasina on Nawaz Sharif can be counter-productive: First feting him and later leaving him in the lurch, similar to the manner in which India treated Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, could give rise to unintended consequences.  Therefore, India would do well to do its homework properly. As Lt Gen Asad Durrani (Retd), a former chief of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s intelligence agency, told me a few years ago: “Making peace means compromises but India does not want to pay the price. India believes Pakistan is suffering today and therefore India can wait and not make gestures. What needs to be understood is that peace is give and take and sometimes it involves changes in position.”

I

t can be reasonably argued that the Pakistani military will continue to call the shots insofar as Afghanistan is concerned and/or that Nawaz Sharif will allow the Generals to handle the Afghanistan affairs in the run-up to the withdrawal of American combat troops by 2014-end. However, what cannot be said with any degree of certainty is how he would ensure, as per his party’s manifesto:

i)                    That the formulation and determination of foreign policy remains the sole preserve of its elected representatives, while the implementation and execution shall be assigned to relevant departments and agencies by the Federal Cabinet”;

ii)                    that “for purposes of regular and systematic coordination and consideration of all matters related to national security, a Cabinet Committee on Defence and National Security, to be headed by the Prime Minister and assisted by a Permanent Secretariat, will be established to maintain democratic oversight of all aspects of foreign, defence and national security policies”;

iii)                 that “all institutions, whether civil or military, including those dealing with security and/or intelligence matters, act in accordance with the law, and under the instructions and directives of the Federal Cabinet”; and

iv)                 “democratic and parliamentary oversight on intelligence services”.

And then there are a host of other issues that would have a bearing on domestic politics in Pakistan, such as:

a)      Relations between the PML(N) and the PPP;

b)      Nawaz’s choice for President of Pakistan (presidential elections have to be held by September);

c)       Economy;

d)      Energy;

e)      Extremism and safety of minorities;

f)        Employment; and

g)      Export of terror to India.

Pakistan-watchers in India will have little difficulty in conceding that Nawaz Sharif is riding a tiger what with so many domestic challenges confronting him, which will demand his attention for some time to come. Prudence dictates that India will be ready when Pakistan is ready; until then he can do with India’s benefit of doubt and time.

So, will Gah get lucky or Jatti Umra?

India, China standoff: Acne or acme of skill ?

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To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill

"

New Delhi
4 May 2013

The latest Chinese incursion into Jammu and Kashmir may in itself not pose an existential threat to India but when read along with China’s history of all-weather friendship with Pakistan, cartographic aggression, its foray into Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir, issuing of stapled visas to Indian nationals and damming of rivers in Tibet, it reveals a pattern that is not in the least tentative. Or, that is how New Delhi must proceed in the interest of a nimble and supple China policy.

So, to describe the latest Chinese incursion as nothing more than an “acne” that can be cured with an “ointment” would not be accurate; such a description does not square  with the facts obtaining on the ground and definitely not with the statements emanating from the political, military and diplomatic quarters. The discourse in the Indian media is not without criticism either. As a former diplomat MK Bhadrakumar put it, it is improper on the part of a section of media to isolate a particular incident (in this case the latest Chinese incursion in J&K) and insist that is where history begins.

Questions have also been raised about the inability of the political class to hold a rational discussion of the terms of a boundary settlement with China. Why is it that India is the only neighbour of China (beside Bhutan) to not have an agreed border? How can India expect to resolve its boundary dispute with China if it is not willing to make concessions? Perhaps it would be instructive to understand how China, which has 14 countries in its neighbourhood, has resolved border disputes with all but two of them.

When Kazakhstan became an independent state almost a decade ago, it inherited a border conflict with China that dates back several centuries. In 1998, China and Kazakhstan reached a broad understanding on the border dispute. A Kazakh diplomat, who I met a few years ago in New Delhi, recalled the pitfalls of his country’s negotiations with China. Murat Mukhtarovich Auezov, who was Kazakhstan's first ambassador to China from 1992 to 1995 (China and Kazakhstan established diplomatic relations on January 3, 1992), told me that some of the Central Asian republics lost out territorially and politically to China on the negotiating table in spite of enjoying generally good relations with China.

Auezov was particularly critical of the manner in which China approached the boundary dispute with Kazakhstan. He said Kazakhstan ended up with an agreement that served China’s interests; not Central Asia’s. The Central Asian countries may have benefited from the oil transit money received from China but they have had to pay a price for it by settling the issue of water resources, including cross-border rivers, to the advantage of China. He also felt that the expanding Chinese economic and trade ties have given rise to political and demographic threats.

Some commentators have wondered whether the latest Chinese incursion into Jammu and Kashmir could have been motivated in part by India’s beefing up of its border infrastructure. According to Mr Bhadrakumar, it is only the Indian government which has a complete picture of what happened on the Line of Actual Control (LAC); it only knows how the Indian forces’ conduct has been on our side of the LAC. B Raman, a former additional secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, counters it by saying that the Chinese presence in PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, for instance, is a violation of India’s sovereignty claims. Prof Srikanth Kondapalli of Jawaharlal Nehru University, in turn, points out that China has invested heavily in Gilgit-Baltistan, including investing 32 billion dollars in a hydro electricity projects and widening the Karakoram highway so that it could also be used for landing aircraft.

Then, could it be that the Chinese might be trying to force a unilateral solution on India by taking their ground positions in line with their map? TCA Rangachari, a former diplomat, believes it requires careful consideration. Jury is still out on these and other questions. For now, all eyes are on External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid’s visit to Beijing next week and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to New Delhi later this month.

SINGH IS SINKING !

Manmohan Singh's transformation from a mascot to a mask is complete

New Delhi

4 May 2013

On 3 May 2013, India went to sleep with the news of the arrest of the Railway Minister’s nephew for receiving a bribe. What should surprise the discerning is not that a politician’s kin was involved in corruption but that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) carried out the arrest, particularly at a time when the country is in the midst of a debate on the independence or otherwise of the premier investigating agency; when the Supreme Court is asking for the agency to be insulated from executive interference; and at a time when the scam-ridden ruling coalition, which is stumbling from one crisis to another, can easily do without another crisis of its own making.

For a government that does not shy away from letting the CBI loose on errant allies to rein them in, and for an agency whose director says it is a part of the government, not an autonomous organisation, the arrest of the minister’s nephew by the CBI should raise some perplexing but pertinent questions. Are we to believe, for instance, that the CBI acted on its own and that it did not take its political masters into confidence before arresting a minister’s kin? Or that the Department of Personnel and Training to which the agency reports and, by extension, the Prime Minister’s office under which the department falls, did not intervene? Or, worse still, the CBI director had an axe to grind with the Railway Board official who bribed the minister’s nephew?

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Singh Yadav was not betraying any secrets when he told journalists at Allahabad in April that anybody who does not act according to the Congress party’s wishes faces persecution through CBI. Neither was his father Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi party, who amplified it by saying that the CBI was misused by the Congress the moment any party took it on. MK Stalin of the DMK would not disagree with the Yadavs; the agency raided his house in March barely two days after the party pulled out of the UPA. Finance Minister P Chidambaram disapproved of the action by the CBI, saying it will be misunderstood. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in turn, said that the government did not do it.

Not for a moment is it being suggested here that there is indeed something more to the arrest of the Railway Minister’s nephew than meets the eye. Whatever be the circumstances of his arrest, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh cannot escape the blame for presiding over a tainted government. If his administration can take credit, rightfully, for giving to the nation path-breaking initiatives such as the Right to Information, the Right to Education and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, it must own up to its acts of omission and/or commission, too.

Nobody is yet calling Manmohan Singh corrupt but there is no denying that his Teflon image has taken a beating from his heydays in 2004, when he was pitchforked into the prime minister’s chair. Four years into its second consecutive term, the government has not come out smelling of roses after the various scams in 2G spectrum, Commonwealth Games, Adarsh housing society, coal ‘gate’ and purchase of helicopters. Surely, the Prime Minister cannot possibly blame compulsions of running a coalition on all the scams ! True, as Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi puts it, “One man riding a horse cannot solve the country’s problems”, but try telling that to a Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi or a Nelson Mandela ! Simply put, giving up without trying or looking the other way is tantamount to abdication of one’s responsibilities. Ironically, for a technocrat-turned-politician he has allowed his party to go out of its way to penalise the honest and make an example out of them for all to see. A case in point is the brazen manner in which the party has treated a certain bureaucrat for taking undue interest in a matter. You can imagine what message that sends out to the world at large.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would be doing a singular disservice to his reputation and legacy and that of his administration if he does not rid himself of inertia and live up to the expectations of the New Middle Class, which can be impatient, demanding, unforgiving but generous to a fault, too. Already, his political rivals dismiss him as weak. Some in the media call him an underachiever. If he stays the course, the time is not far when he will be described, not uncharitably, as a Mukhota (mask) for all things corrupt. That epithet was reportedly used for Atal Behari Vajpayee to hide or camouflage the BJP’s proclivities. Manmohan Singh could find it hard to live down that epithet if he does not stop the buck with himself. Silence may not be an option going into an election year, and it certainly won’t help him to win friends and influence people.

The transformation of Manmohan Singh from the proverbial outsider to the consummate insider is complete. Well before the advent of Facebook and Twitter, Manmohan Singh enjoyed enormous goodwill among the Indian middle class. His personal integrity was never in doubt. Therefore, it came as a disappointment to the Aam Aadmi (common man) when scams began tumbling out of the government’s closet. Disenchantment with the political class began manifesting itself in various forms, most recently in the form of a public movement against corruption. That movement spawned many clones across India in its many cities, towns and villages. But as the middle class learnt much to its dismay, Manmohan Singh’s so-be-it attitude on the issue of the India-US nuclear deal did not extend to areas of governance that touched their everyday lives, be it jobs, prices or corruption. Today, he runs the risk of alienating the very people who give him the benefit of the doubt every time his government is embroiled in a new scam.

India - Pakistan: Dream gone sour

New Delhi
2 May 2013

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Pakistan policy is in tatters after an Indian prisoner Sarabjit Singh's murder in a Lahore jail sparked anger and outrage across India.

Coming as it does after the mysterious death of an Indian prisoner Chamel Singh in a Pakistani jail on January 15 and the beheading of an Indian soldier and killing of another soldier on January 8, Prime Minister Singh increasingly finds himself at odds with the national mood and public opinion on relations with Pakistan.

For one who has fought off opposition from within his own party and from other quarters to invest in improving relations with Pakistan since he came to power in 2004, Prime Minister Singh has had to bow to public sentiment and voice his anguish at Pakistan's behaviour.

"... the criminals responsible for the barbaric and murderous attack on Sarabjit Singh must be brought to justice," the Prime Minister said, adding that "the government of Pakistan did not heed the pleas of the government of India, Sarabjit's family and of civil society in India and Pakistan to take a humanitarian view of this case."

Relations with Pakistan came under a strain early this year with the beheading of an Indian soldier. The public outrage over the incident forced the Prime Minister to assert that “there can’t be business as usual with Pakistan” and that the onus for fostering peace with India was squarely on Pakistan.

If the first term of Prime Minister Singh's government between 2004 and 2009 was taken up by his single-minded pursuit of the India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement, the second term was expected to see him focus his energies and political capital on a rapprochement with Pakistan.

The Prime Minister, who was born in Gah village in what isnow Pakistan, was not averse to visiting that country in his quest for a lasting legacy but recent developments have ensured that he cannot undertake that journey any time soon.

Death sparks outrage in India

Indians woke up Thursday to the news of Sarabjit Singh's death, who was on death row for terrorism and espionage in Pakistan. He died at 12.45 am on Thursday in a Lahore hospital. He was brought there comatose on April 26, after six other prisoners attacked him in jail, using bricks to inflict mortal injuries on him.

"It is a cold blooded murder," screamed Sushma Swaraj, the leader of Opposition in the lower House of Parliament. Her party,the BJP, accused the government of not trying hard enough to secure Sarabjit Singh's release while he was alive. It also demanded downgrading of bilateral ties with Pakistan.

Other Opposition parties targeted the government for its inability to get Pakistan to transfer Sarabjit Singh to India or a third country for medical treatment and for not taking up the cause of Indian prisoners languishing in Pakistani jails.

Sarabjit Singh's sister Dalbir Kaur, who spent many years campaigning for his release, urged political parties to unite for a strong collective response to Pakistan.

Parliament condoled his death in a resolution.

Concern in Pakistan

Incidentally, the murder of Sarabjit has come at a time when Pakistan is in the midst of a campaign for electing a new parliament. It goes to the polls on May 11.

Najam Sethi, a journalist who is currently the caretaker chief minister of the Pakistani province of Punjab, told CNN-IBN that there was negligence in the case of murderous attack on Sarabjit. However, he denied any link to the February 9 hanging of Afzal Guru in India, who was convicted for attacking Parliament in 2001.

“I can say there was negligence but I am not aware of anything else,” Sethi said when asked about a letter Sarabjit reportedly wrote to his family apprehending a threat to his life.

An internal inquiry and a judicial probe has been ordered into the matter.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has demanded action against all those who played any part in the assault on Sarabjit Singh. Its chairperson Zohra Yusuf called upon Islamabad and Delhi to take urgent measures to prevent the incident from undermining bilateral ties and to improve the lot of detainees from the other country in each other’s prisons.

In a statement issued on Thursday, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan said: "Not even the most naive person can believe that a prisoner like Sarabjit in a death cell inside a jail can be targeted in such a brutal assault by prisoners without the knowledge and support of prison guards and the authorities.

"This is far more serious a crime than allowing someone like General Pervez Musharraf to escape from court. It was no secret that Sarabjit faced more threats than other prisoners on account of the charge that he was convicted of and yet his security was so completely compromised. He died when members of the joint Pak-India Judges Committee were visiting Pakistan in order to assess the conditions of detention of Indian prisoners in Pakistani jails."

The statement went on to say that "those in Pakistan who take pride in their vengefulness must feel some shame today, if they are capable of that."

The Commission was worried that Sarabjit’s death might undermine the hard work done by both countries to normalise relations.

"They will have to go out of their way to undo the damage that the murder and the manner that it took place in has done. The need to expeditiously conclude a judicial inquiry to bring all those who are involved to justice cannot be stressed enough. If the two countries begin to treat each other's prisoners with some compassion even now instead of exposing them to the worst of treatment reserved for prisoners in their jails, then some good would still have come from Sarabjit's brutal murder."

Although Pakistani police has charged two prisoners with Sarabjit's murder, conspiracy theories abound in India about how Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI may have had a hand in the murder.

"I don't have any doubt that the attack on Sarabjit was pre-planned and was the handiwork of ISI and jail officials though other people attacked him. Now, two prisoners are being made sacrificial goats," said Mehbood Elahi, a former Indian spy, told PTI in Kolkata.

Sarbjit Singh (49) was given the death sentence in 1991 for bombings a year earlier in Pakistan's Lahore and Faisalabad in which 14 people were killed. His family has said he was innocent.

Sizing up the Chinese Dragon

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A national consensus across the board is required on whether China is a threat or is China a neighbour that we can go along with

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<--- MK NARAYANAN

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While intent is the stuff of diplomacy, the national security calculus must include, and prepare to deal with, the capabilities we see around us

"

SHIVSHANKAR MENON --->

NEW DELHI
2 May 2013

Delivering the late Air Chief Marshal PC Lal 25th Memorial Lecture in New Delhi on 26 March 2008, the then national security adviser of India, MK Narayanan, said that a “national consensus across the board” was required on issues such as whether China is “a threat or is China a neighbour that we can go along with”. In his lecture, entitled “Managing India’s national security and building a consensus for the 21st century”, Narayanan suggested that a consensus was also required on what would be the optimum terms of a boundary settlement with China.

Four years later, Narayanan’s successor Shivshankar Menon took to the podium in New Delhi to deliver the same memorial lecture but on a different topic: “India’s National Security: Challenges and Issues.” Speaking on 2 April 2012, Menon noted that “while intent is the stuff of diplomacy, the national security calculus must include, and prepare to deal with, the capabilities we see around us.” Later that year, Menon said in Beijing that both sides had made considerable progress on the boundary negotiations and that “we have increased our area of understanding between us steadily, thanks to the SR [special representative] process.”

It could be argued that New Delhi is still none the wiser today about Beijing, not in the least for lack of application on its part but because China may not have helped matters with its attitude as manifested in its foray into Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK), issuing of stapled visas to Indian nationals, cartographic aggression, damming of rivers in Tibet, or, more recently, incursions into Indian territory in Jammu and Kashmir. For its part, New Delhi tweaked the Dragon's tail, first by feting Nobel Laureate Liu Xiaobo in Norway, and then by omitting any reference to one-China from the joint statement issued towards the end of the then Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to New Delhi in December 2010.

As New Delhi mulls options to deal with the latest Chinese incursion into Indian territory, passions are running high among some political parties and media alike, with calls for reproaching China and a retaliatory action. There is a view that the latest incursion represents the largest and most strategic land-grab since China’s launch of a more muscular policy toward its neighbours. Another view is that if China does not respect India’s territorial integrity, India is no longer bound to respect China’s. However, there are others who believe that it would be premature to talk of a retaliatory action. They insist that matters concerning relations with important neighbours such as China deserve much greater attention to detail.

The Chinese media, which had hitherto remained silent on the issue, spoke out on May 2 when the Communist Party-run Global Times said in an editorial that “... staking claims to its borders is of crucial significance to China and peace and stability along the border are also vital to India. Current peace and status quo is not bestowed by India alone. China should firmly maintain its friendly policy toward India. However, this doesn’t mean that China will ignore provocations.”

Incidentally, on the day (May 1) when Indian Army Chief Gen Bikram Singh briefed the political leadership on the situation obtaining on the ground following the latest Chinese incursion, India held trilateral talks with the US and Japan in Washington on a wide range of regional and global issues of mutual interest. Their talks focussed on regional and maritime security, and cooperation in multilateral fora.

As External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid prepares to visit Beijing next week ahead of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to New Delhi later this month, it would be instructive to take a step back and look in the rearview mirror in order to make sense of the present and the future.

The outcome of Li Keqiang’s forthcoming visit to India is not likely to be any different from that of his predecessor Wen Jiabao in 2010, when all that the two sides had to show by way of an outcome was a joint statement that hid more than it revealed. There was no mention of any contentious issues, nor did it hold out any promise for realignment of the trajectory of Sino-Indian relationship, which by their own admission, has “acquired global and strategic significance”. In fact, Wen’s visit did not compare favourably with his last visit here in 2005, when both sides had at least an “Agreement on the Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the Boundary Question” to show. The 2010 joint statement was interesting to the extent that for the first time in many years, it did not contain the usual formulations such as “Tibet Autonomous Region [is] part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China”.

Mamata, Karunanidhi effect: MEA sees red as states veto foreign policy

HYDERABAD

20 MARCH 2012

The protestations from Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa and her rival and DMK

patriarch M Karunanidhi over India's vote on Sri Lanka later this week, coming as they

do months after West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee vetoed an agreement on

the sharing of the Teesta river waters with Bangladesh, has further fuelled anxiety in

South Block, which also houses the ministry of external affairs (MEA.)

The precedent being set by the Centre caving in or succumbing to the States on matters

that fall in the domain of foreign policy is worrying for India, and more so for the

practitioners of diplomacy in the MEA.

Already, India's engagement of Pakistan on one hand and China and Burma on the other

are determined to an extent by the domestic conditions prevalent in Jammu and Kashmir

and the north-eastern states, respectively.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh betrayed his frustration when he said in the Lok Sabha

that difficult decisions were getting more difficult because of coalition compulsions. He

called for bipartisanship in the interest of the country.

However, not everybody is pessimistic. Lalit Mansingh, a former foreign secretary and a

former ambassador to the US, echoes the sentiments of many who believe that this trend

should not be unwelcome.

"Foreign policy today is made not only in New Delhi but elsewhere, too. There are

multiple stakeholders and one can't deny states a say in foreign policy if it relates to

them," Mr Mansingh told this newspaper. So, if the states assert their rights and seek

more consultations, then the Centre must respect those sentiments, he notes.

Equally worrying for New Delhi would be the erosion in its standing in what it calls its

sphere of influence. The ongoing debate over which way India should vote on a UNHRC

resolution on Sri Lanka is instructive in that it illustrates how far India has come from

being an influential player in its own backyard to a marginal or fringe player.

Irrespective of whether India joins the US, France, Norway and others in voting for the

resolution as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indicated in the Lok Sabha, or abstains,

which is not ruled out if the resolution is not worded to its satisfaction, the non-binding

resolution is most likely to fall through.

Colombo is sanguine about the outcome of the March 23 vote in Geneva. It believes it

has the numbers required to defeat the resolution. China, Russia, Pakistan, Cuba,

Indonesia, Thailand and others from the Asian and the African regional groups in the 47-

member UNHRC have indicated that they would oppose it.

If that is a probability, then is it advisable for New Delhi to vote for the resolution and

risk losing whatever goodwill and leverage it might have with Colombo? At the same

time optimists take the view that Colombo would be helping itself, and India, by agreeing

to some concessions on the language of the draft resolution and by putting forward a

roadmap for a political solution of the ethnic conflict.

Kudankulam stalemate over, PM to discuss N-safety at Korea summit next week

HYDERABAD

20 MARCH 2012

Echoes of Kudankulam would be felt in distant Seoul next week when heads of state or

government from about 50 countries gather in the South Korean capital for the second

edition of the nuclear safety summit.

On their agenda will not only be nuclear safety but also the future of nuclear as an

energy source, post the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011.

While there is a strong popular sentiment against nuclear energy in Japan and a host of

other Asian nations, South Korea and India stand out as an exception where

governments have signalled their intention to pursue the nuclear power path.

The March 26-27 summit, which will be attended by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,

Chinese President Hu Jintao and US President Barack Obama, among others, can be

expected to discuss issues such as guidelines for nuclear safety.

The US hosted the inaugural nuclear safety summit in 2010.

A week before Dr Singh leaves for Seoul, Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa ended

the eight-month-long uncertainty over the future of the Kudankulam nuclear power project

by giving her go ahead.

Work at the site had been affected by the protests by locals spearheaded by a People's

Movement Against Nuclear Energy, which feared a Fukushima-like catastrophe in

Kudankulam.

The decision to restart work at Kudankulam coincides with China's decision to resume

construction of nuclear power plants. China currently has 13 nuclear power plants with

varied capacities.

China suspended approving new nuclear power projects and launched nationwide safety

inspections at nuclear power stations and facilities in operation and under construction

over safety concerns after the Fukushima nuclear crisis.

According to state-run Beijing Review, China at present has approved 43 nuclear power

plants, with a planned capacity of 200 million KW. These plants are located in 16

provinces, including eight in inland areas.

Incidentally, South Korea is one country where Prime Minister should find himself at

ease. In a poll conducted by worldpublicopinion.org a few years ago, Dr Singh was voted

among the most popular "regional" leaders in South Korea with 47 per cent South Korean

nationals saying they trusted him more than others.

In the 20-country poll, 30 per cent of Chinese leaned positively towards Dr Singh

although the Chinese views of him had become more negative as compared to the

previous poll. He also enjoyed an overwhelming support (83 per cent) among Indians.

In contrast, Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari fared poorly on the confidence index. Only

34 per cent of the Pakistanis had confidence in him.

India's poser to US: If you won't dump Pakistan, why should we jettison Iran?

Hyderabad
18 March 2012

As India negotiates the diplomatic minefield that is West Asia, questions are being asked of the government as to whether and how it could engage differently with Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia, without having to taking sides or pick and choose one over the other.

New Delhi would have you believe that the overlapping tensions in West Asia, manifested in the Israel-Iran stand-off over the latter's nuclear ambitions, the proxy war being played out in Syria between a Shiite Iran and the Sunni-bloc led by Saudi Arabia, or more generally the competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for supremacy, constrict India's options.

In an example of some nimble Indian diplomacy, the government despatched external affairs minister SM Krishna to Israel and defence minister AK Antony to Saudi Arabia in order to offset any adverse fallout from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's proposed visit to Iran later this year. However, the same government chose in its wisdom to support a UNSC resolution against Syria.

While there is merit in New Delhi's argument, an influential section of the Indian diplomatic community contends that the ongoing investigation into the attack on an Israeli envoy in New Delhi or the threat of US sanctions on Indian entities post-June 28 for not reducing oil imports from Iran should not deter the government from pursuing what it deems is in its enlightened national interest.

"The US not only does not choose between India and Pakistan but actually assists our adversary in many ways, so why should we forego our limited relationship with Iran for the sake of the US?" wondered Kanwal Sibal, a former foreign secretary.

"Do Iran and Saudi Arabia choose between us and Pakistan? If at all they have been historically closer to Pakistan than to us. If Iran's statements on Israel and the Holocaust are objectionable, the Wahabi ideology emanating from Saudi Arabia is objectionable too. We should safeguard our energy relationship with Iran as best as we can despite US and EU sanctions and the Arab position," Mr Sibal told this newspaper.

Increasingly, diplomats who have observed or served in the region insist that India's relationship with Iran should stand on its own feet and not linked to its relations with Saudi Arabia. They maintain that whatever the differences between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the Shia-Sunni conflict that is building up, India does not need to take sides or feel compelled to choose.

They cautioned against a repeat of 2005 when New Delhi jettisoned its ties with Tehran in its narrow pursuit of the India-US nuclear deal. While some claim that Iran's rise as a regional power is inevitable, others cite the significance of Iran as land bridge to Afghanistan and beyond as a case in point.

From The Asian Age, New Delhi, edition

BJP's NDA partners pitch for minus-Modi formula for next parliamentary election in order to bait new allies

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi on the cover of the
26 March 2012 issue of the Time magazine of the U.S.

Hyderabad

17 March 2012

Making it to the cover of Time magazine may prompt two-time Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi's followers to believe that he has it in him to lead India, but BJP's allies seem to think otherwise.

These parties seem to be making up their mind that the NDA's electoral prospects in the next parliamentary election, whenever it is called, would be better served without Modi in the lead. Some of them have suggested sotto-voce that the NDA could hope to become more acceptable to voters and allies -- present and potential -- alike, if the likes of a Narendra Modi or even an LK Advani are not projected as shadow premiers. They are calling it a minus formula, similar to the minus-one or minus-two formulae seen in the politics of neighbouring Bangladesh and Pakistan.

For one, the JD(U), which is the second largest constituent of the NDA, sees Modi as a liability and it does not fancy the idea of going to polls with him at the helm. More so, when JD(U) leader and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar himself is seen as a potential choice for prime minister. What goes in Nitish's favour, as compared to Modi, is the degree of acceptability towards him among non-BJP, non-Congress political parties, some of whom are coming together to constitute what is loosely being called a third or federal front comprising regional parties such as the Trinamul in West Bengal, BJD in Odisha, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, and, now, SP in Uttar Pradesh, where Mulayam Singh Yadav's party has emerged the winner of the recently concluded Assembly election.

The third front is not without problems or internal contradictions, though. Complicating matters for this motley group is that there are many potential contenders for prime minister, including, but not limited to, Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Already, Samajwadi Party sources have indicated that their next goal after getting a brute majority in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly is to make "Netaji", as Mulayam is called in his party, the prime minister. The SP has indicated its support to the UPA in the event of the Trinamul pulling out of the alliance and there it is speculated that the Congress could offer Mulayam a Cabinet berth to return the favour.

From the Deccan Chronicle, Bengaluru edition

From the Deccan Chronicle, Hyderabad edition

For its part, the Trinamul would not mind an early election because it is better placed than its rivals after winning the last Assembly election. However, if Congress veteran and finance minister Pranab Mukherjee is to be believed, Mamata has a huge challenge ahead of her simply because she is not fluent in Hindi. "If you don't know Hindi, you cannot be a prime minister. There are certain skills that are required for certain work. That is why Narasimha Rao became a good prime minister", Mr Mukherjee had famously remarked in 2009 when asked whether he was in contention for the top job. The language handicap notwithstanding, Mamata's Trinamul could emerge as the pivot of this front and a potential kingmaker in the event of a hung Parliament, where no party or alliance has absolute majority in the Lok Sabha.

Incidentally, the question asked about Modi has been used for Rahul Gandhi, too. A section of the Congress party is in favour of seeing the Gandhi scion succeed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh before the next parliamentary election, if only to enthuse party cadres and voters alike, but Congress President Sonia Gandhi has dismissed the possibility for now. Like cricketer Sachin Tendulkar, Dr Singh is faced with a career dilemma: they would want to know when is a good time to retire. Dr Singh's anxiety is compounded by the fact that for one who invested a large quantum of political capital in the UPA-1 on seeing the India-US nuclear deal through, even at the cost of risking his own government, he is today having to explain why nuclear projects in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and West Bengal have not taken off. Also, big-ticket reform measures such as entry of FDI of up to 51 per cent in multi-brand retail, or in insurance sector, has been put on hold for want of consensus among the UPA allies.

Indian minister calls for beefing up infrastructure at China border, moots a national rail policy

From The Asian Age, New Delhi edition of 15 March 2012

Hyderabad

14 March 2012

Dinesh Trivedi made an impassioned plea for augmenting rail infrastructure in the border areas, in an implicit reference to China building a network of rails and roads in areas bordering India's north-eastern states.

In the same breath, he pitched for evolving a national policy for Railways, so that there is continuity of policy across successive governments and policies can be executed without them falling a victim to partisan politics.

"... the time has come to think of a national policy for Railways, just as we have one for defence and for external affairs," Mr Trivedi said Wednesday in his budget speech in the Lok Sabha.

Uncharacteristically for a railway minister, Mr Trivedi spoke about how the geopolitical situation on borders arising out of building of state-of-art road and rail network by neighbouring countries "requires a matching response."

The Railways, he continued, must remain in a state of preparedness to move men and machines to border areas.

Mr Trivedi sought to impress upon the relevant ministries of the government, not least of all the ministry of finance, that it was therefore necessary to undertake projects of national importance on priority and to ensure adequate funding.

Similarly, he argued for liberal funds for connecting the remote and backward areas in Jammu and Kashmir and the north-eastern states, without worrying about the return on investment or such other factors.

He warned that the projects in J&K and in the north-east, which required more than Rs 4,000 crore for the current year, may get delayed for want of adequate funding.

"The budgetary support to Indian Railways has been pegged at a modest level of Rs 24,000 crore as against a projected requirement of Rs 45,000 crore. The national projects in Kashmir and northeast region have also to be funded out of this," he said.

In his speech, Mr Trivedi also dwelled on how the Indian Railways was contributing its bit for improving India's relations with her neighbours. He cited the proposed Tripura-Bangladesh railway link, and the new Jogbani-Biratnagar line and Jaynagar-Bijalpura-Bardibas to provide connectivity to Nepal as a case in point.

Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh to visit Iran despite regional tensions

Hyderabad

12 March 2012

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's much-anticipated visit to Iran this year can be expected to serve the dual purpose of maintaining India's ties with Iran on an even keel and kickstarting peace talks with Pakistan.

Tehran will host the 16th Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in September.

His visit to the Iranian capital will, literally, be couched in nonalignment, coming as it will in the midst of a brewing crisis in West Asia, between Iran and Israel, and between the Shiite and Sunni blocs represented by Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively.

It will follow the visits by external affairs minister SM Krishna to Israel, and defence minister AK Antony to Saudi Arabia. Also, it will be the first visit by an Indian premier to Iran in over a decade, after Atal Bihari Vajpayee's in 2001.

Prime Minister Singh's proposed visit to Tehran is being described as a manifestation of India's balanced and equitable relationships with various protagonists in the region. A broad-based relationship with the region is a welcome shift in policy, particularly after the narrow-minded pursuit of interests in the run-up to the signing of the India-US nuclear deal.

India and Pakistan are among the 120 members of the NAM. Besides interacting with the host, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, Prime Minister Singh is likely to re-engage his Pakistan counterpart, Yousuf Raza Gilani, on the margins of the summit.

The prime ministers of India and Pakistan last met in November 2011 on the sidelines of the Saarc summit in the Maldives. Incidentally, it was on the margins of the last NAM summit, hosted by Egypt in the Red Sea resort of Sharm-el-Sheikh in 2009, that prime ministers Singh and Gilani agreed to insulate the peace talks from "action on terrorism".

Prime Minister Singh will be hoping that peace with Pakistan will be his legacy, as India heads for elections in 2014. The Singh-Gilani talks will be preceded by Mr Krishna's visit to Islamabad.

The Asian Age, New Delhi

Deccan Chronicle, Bengaluru

India slow off the block or ..? China likely to bag Israeli rail project

New Delhi

12 February 2012

India is set to potentially lose yet another infrastructure project of interest to it,

to China, due to a combination of diplomatic lethargy and inertia in decision-making.

Recently, the Israeli government approved a railway line linking its Red Sea port of Eilat

and Tel Aviv on the Mediterranean coast. The "Med - Red" railway line linking the

Mediterranean and the Red seas offers an alternative to the Suez Canal for

transcontinental trade between Europe and Asia. Also, it could facilitate exports of gas

from Israel to India and beyond. Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu is bullish on the

project, saying that "it has created very great interest in among the emerging powers,

China and India, and others."

The Israeli transport ministry has indicated a preference for a government-to-government

agreement with China for tapping the professional capability of the Chinese companies

in the construction of railway systems and transport networks.

Already, the Asian Development Bank, which is financing the TAPI (an acronym for

Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India) gas pipeline project, has indicated that

Chinese companies could be roped in to build the trans-national gas pipeline that will

deliver Turkmen gas to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Indian government is not

particularly amused by the prospect of a Chinese involvement in the construction of the

TAPI pipeline.

There is a sliver of hope yet for the Indian state enterprises such as RITES (Rail India

Technical and Economic Services) Limited and IRCON (Indian Railway Construction)

International Limited -- both of which are public sector undertakings under the railway

ministry. One of the options Israel could look at is international tendering, and, if it opts

for it, then Indian agencies stand a chance of becoming involved with the railway project.

The IRCON has completed several landmark infrastructure projects across the globe in

21 countries, including Israel. Similarly, RITES' operational experience spans over 50

countries in Africa, South East Asia, West Asia and South America; most of its foreign

assignments are for national governments.

However, an Indian government source explained away the inertia of decision-making by

saying that the project has come up in conversations only recently, and, there is no

information yet of any likely interest from a PSU or private entity.

Indians safe in Syria, no travel advisory for now

From Left, the clipping from The Asian Age; the International page of the Bengaluru edition of Deccan Chronicle; and the clipping of the article from the edition

New Delhi

4 August 2011

Some Indian nationals living in Syria have shifted from the city of Hama, which has witnessed protests, to Aleppo, the largest city after the capital Damascus.

Similarly, a few Indians living in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor have moved to safer areas in the same province following the recent unrest.

There are about 1,000 Indian nationals in Syria and all of them were reported to be safe. There were no reports of casualties or injuries to Indian nationals.

A majority of the Indian nationals, about 600 of them, including their families, are located at the Shia shrine of Sayidda Zeinab, on the outskirts of Damascus, where they learn the religious scriptures.

Some 300-odd Indians live in Damascus, and another 35, mostly oil workers, in the province of Deir ez-Zor. The remaining Indian nationals are scattered across Syria.

Unlike some countries, India does not intend to issue a travel advisory warning its nationals to leave Syria or to not to travel to Syria. Their evacuation is ruled out for now.

New Delhi has sought to justify its stand by saying that its assessment is different from that of some other countries whose decisions are clouded by political factors. It has determined, using its mission in Damascus and other means, that the situation inside Syria is not as bad as it is made out to be by a section of media, mostly based in the US and Europe. Also, the casualty figures are exaggerated by the particular section of media.

There were only pockets of protests, and the capital Damascus and Aleppo, two of Syria's largest cities, have remained quiet. Moreover, the families of diplomats of some countries, who had been asked to leave Syria following the outbreak of violence, were reported to be returning to Damascus. At the same time, India does not anticipate a problem in relocating its nationals from Syria if the situation worsens because their population is small, unlike Egypt, Libya or Yemen.

The sentiments of India, which is the president of the United Nations security council (UNSC) for the month of August, are shared by some other non-permanent UNSC members who have since issued a presidential statement, as opposed to a resolution, voicing its concern over the developments in Syria.

Sanctions won't help, a combative Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad warns US allies; Damascus banks on IBSA support in UNSC

Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad

New Delhi

2 August 2011

Dismissing the latest tranche of sanctions as futile, Syria has said that the European Union (EU) is mistaken if it believes it can extract "political concessions" from the government headed by President Bashar al-Assad.

The EU on Tuesday added Syrian defence minister Ali Habib Mahmud and four others to its sanctions blacklist.

In an exclusive interview to this newspaper in New Delhi, a combative Syrian vice foreign minister Faisal Mekdad accused the US, EU and Israel of "provoking" violence in his country and attempting to do a Libya in Syria.

"It is very clear they want to repeat the same aggression committed by the NATO against Libya on Syria," Mr Mekdad said, alluding to moves by the US and its European allies to revive a draft United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution condemning Syria for its crackdown on protesters.

He is reasonably sanguine that the IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa), all three of whom currently are non-permanent UNSC members, along with Russia and China, would not encourage adoption of the resolution.

"What prevented the Security Council for the last three months from adopting a resolution is the understanding shown by the friends of Syria. I think this time their [the US and its European allies] attempts will fail again," he said.

The only time Mr Mekdad struck an apparently conciliatory note was when he said that Syria was "ready to cooperate with Europe" provided the terms of engagement were "on equal basis with mutual respect and understanding".

However, he was categorical that "if the objective of the US and its European allies was to help Israel preserve its hegemony and exercise its hegemony on the entire region then they are wrong."

"... what we are looking for is just and comprehensive peace where Israel withdraws from the occupied Arab territories from West Bank and Gaza, from the Syrian Golan and from southern Lebanon, and establishment of an independent Palestine state. This is the way we can establish [peace] but their support of Israel and their attempts to give Israel the peace and the land will lead nowhere."

Mr Mekdad noted that Syria was paying a price for being "the last post of resistance against European, American and Israeli pressures."

He added: "Any meeting between post-Hosni Mubarak Egypt and Syria is very dangerous for American and Israeli and Western interests in the region. That is why they have to destroy Syria before it establishes good, normal relations with new Egypt."

Mr Mekdad, who called on external affairs minister SM Krishna on Monday, said the "help and support received from India at international fora is very important."

India on Monday assumed the rotating presidency of the UNSC for the month of August.

Calling for "strategic" ties between India and West Asia generally and Syria in particular, Mr Mekdad said, "Syria and developing countries should now look to the east rather than to the west [and we] need to develop South-South cooperation."

Clippings from The Asian Age (top), Deccan Chronicle's Bengaluru edition (bottom left), and from Deccan Chronicle's Hyderabad edition (bottom right)

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